1. Introduction / Executive Summary

Pakistan’s external account is expected to come under additional pressure in FY2027, as the petroleum import bill is projected to exceed baseline estimates by $4.2 billion. It may significantly weaken the SBP reserves buffer over the next 12 months if current conditions persist, especially when $7 billion in net debt repayments are accounted for.

Prime Brief "Economic Fallout of Gulf Energy Disruptions Pakistan’s External Account Vulnerability" discusses Pakistan’s macroeconomic vulnerability amid the Gulf conflict and whether it persists over FY2027, especially due to petroleum imports. It examines how prolonged disruptions to regional energy supply channels could affect Pakistan's external account, foreign exchange reserves, and external financing requirements. It also examines the government’s reported request for a $10 billion exchange stabilisation facility from the US as an indicator of increasing external financing requirements during a prolonged period of regional uncertainty.