The Missing Quarter-Million: What Really Happened to Pakistan’s University Enrollment

By Mohib Amin - 2026

Pakistan's university enrollment fell for the first time in over a decade, from a peak of 2.2 million in 2020-21 to just under 1.95 million by 2023-24, a contraction of roughly 275,000 students. The conventional explanation blames inflation and a weak job market – only half right. The more traceable cause is a 2019 decision by HEC to abolish the two-year BA/BSc degree, the default low-cost credential at institutions like Allama Iqbal Open University, financed by a $400 million World Bank loan that rewarded speed of rollout over enrollment safeguards. HEC's claimed recovery is largely illusory: public enrollment has barely moved since 2021-22, while private universities grew every year since...