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Economic Reforms

Policy Brief on Automobile sector

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Policy Brief on Automobile sector

The automobile sector today operates within the rubric of several policies, frameworks and regulations: the Industrial Policy 2011; the Trade Policy Framework 2012-15; the Finance Acts which modify the fiscal and tariff regime backed by the Statutory Regulatory Orders (SROs) and the Customs General Orders (CGOs); the Auto Industry Development Programme (AIDP) 2008; the Tariff Based Scheme (TBS); Pakistan Standards; and the National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS).

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To read more, click here: Policy Brief on Automobile Sector

For media inquiries, contact saad@primeinstitute.org

EAG reviews SSRC Reforms Agenda

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

EAG reviews SSRC Reforms Agenda

Economic Advisory Group (EAG) in its Vision document has strongly argued in favour of revisiting the support price regimes and the relevant laws that hinder competition, including in the agriculture and commodities sector.

A general principle we espouse is that economic activity should be contestable, i.e. individuals and firms should face the pressure of unrestricted competition. Deviations from this principle should be thoroughly scrutinized and vigorously debated.

Historically, there have been significant deviations from the principle of contestability. For example, the Punjab Sugar Factories Control Act 1950 states,“… cane grown in a reserved area shall not be purchased by a purchasing agent or by any person other than the occupier of the factory …” This adversely affects the bargaining position of the farmer in relation to factory owners.

Likewise, the licensing regime governing the setting up of sugar factories not only prevents existing factories from relocating to where production can be organised more efficiently, but also prevents new entrants, thus limiting competition. Excessive government intervention in restricting exports and imports of the commodity has also frequently given rise to surpluses and shortages in the domestic market, thus keeping government functionaries busy with managing one crisis after another.

In light of this, the Sugar Sector Reforms Committee (SSRC) setup by the federal government has proposed a set of reforms that go a long way in addressing the above challenges. Some of the key proposals include abolition of restricted areas, tax free imports of sugar, a gradual move away from the minimum support price regime, bringing transparency to forward contracts by allowing for such under the Pakistan Mercantile Exchange, and implementing adequate pricing of water to incentivise the adoption of water-saving farming practices.

EAG supports these measures and encourages policymakers both at the federal and provincial level to take necessary steps towards their implementation. EAG believes that these measures will improve farmers’ bargaining positions in relation to other stakeholders by allowing them to sell their produce to whoever offers the higher price. These reforms will further allow for new factories to be established, while facilitating existing ones to relocate to where it is more productive to operate. In addition to improving productivity at the level of sugar factories, the increase in competition between factories will also benefit both the farmer and the consumer.

Allowing for forward contracts while ensuring effective supervision will help reduce seasonal volatility in sugar prices. Likewise, removing restrictions on imports will expose the industry to international competition and incentivize the adoption of more productive technology. Alternately, the new regime will allow inefficient players in the sugar industry to exit the market, thus reallocating economic resources to more productive activities. This latter point is the bedrock of EAG’s vision document.

While supporting the reforms agenda in principal, EAG also recommends that the SSRC reconsiders some of the other proposals put forward in the report:

  1. The report suggests that exports may only be allowed “in times of high production” and “through allocation of quota on FCFS without any government subsidy.” This proposal will lead to similar problems as in the past. A combination of low international prices and surplus stock at home will necessitate government subsidising exports to bring inventories at a level where factories have an incentive to undertake production. Instead, a better policy will be to allow free export of sugar while maintaining strategic reserves as a credible threat against speculative activity in the domestic market.
  2. The current proposal restricts forward contracts to a maximum of 15 days. EAG proposes that this limit should be increased to at least cover one full season, if not more. Research shows that forward contracts play an important role in reducing the volatility of the spot price. These further allow businesses to hedge against risks and, as a result, incentivise firms to increase their investments. To avoid speculation, government should invest in the capacity of concerned regulators, such as the Competition Commission of Pakistan, to monitor collusive practices and guard against these.
  3. The proposal also recommends enforcement of relevant laws “to ensure that no hoarding is possible.” EAG recommends that the committee should clearly define “hoarding” in the context of the sugar industry. There should be a clear distinction between hoarding, on the one hand, and the need to store the commodity by industry players for business purposes. For example, farmers need to store the crop while they negotiate on price with multiple market players. Likewise, retailers need to maintain sufficient stock levels to effectively manage their supply chains and expand their retail networks. Finally, traders accumulate stocks so these could be sold during off-season when prices are generally high. This distinction has historically been lost on the district authorities charged with implementing anti-hoarding laws, and, as a result, economic efficiency is compromised. For example, in the process of implementing anti-hoarding laws, farmers have been denied the few weeks after the harvest that it can take to select the best possible transaction.
  4. While the report notes, “import of sugar is already open for the private sector,” policymakers have time and again imposed restrictions in the past, often requiring approvals from the highest levels of the government. This loophole must be closed to bring more certainty to the rules that govern the sugar market.
  5. Finally, while EAG fully endorses the move away from the minimum support price, EAG also recommends that policymakers at the provincial level should work towards carefully designing a mechanism for introducing crop insurance for small farmers in order to protect them from adverse shocks. This is essential both for protecting small farmers from falling into poverty in the face of adverse shocks, and also for increasing the acceptability of a market-based pricing regime. The insurance product can be linked to the Kissan Card that the current government has recently introduced, and rolled out gradually to minimize the likelihood of costly mistakes.

Overall, EAG largely supports the reforms agenda put forward by the SSRC. This is in line with what the EAG has been proposing on different forums. However, EAG also points to certain proposals and reservations that must be revisited in line with the recommendations above. This will ensure that the overall effectiveness of the reforms agenda is not compromised.

The Economic Advisory Group is an independent group of individuals from economics, policy and the private sector that deliberates regularly on economic developments and shares its views with the government and the public. It is supported by PRIME, an independent think tank.

For media inquiries, contact at info@eag.org.pk or visit www.eag.org.pk.

EAG’s New Vision for Economic Transformation

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

EAG’s New Vision for Economic Transformation

Rethinking Resource Allocation and Productive Structures

This document is a collective contribution by the members of Economic Ad­visory Group, an independent group comprising individuals from academia, policy, and the private sector. An independent think tank Policy Research In­stitute of Market Economy (PRIME) has formed this group and serves as its secretariat.

The Economic Advisory Group is chaired by Syed Javed Hassan, a former investment banker and currently the chairman of NAVTTC and a regular writer on economic issues. Other members are: Dr. Aadil Nakhoda (Assistant Profes­sor, IBA Karachi), Dr. Ahmed Jamal Pirzada (Assistant Professor, University of Bristol, UK), Ali Salman, (Executive Director, PRIME), Muhammad Ashraf Khan (former Federal Secretary), Mueen Batlay (Director, Hamdard Institute of Man­agement Sciences), Najma Minhas (Managing Editor, Global Village Space), Samir Ahmed, (CEO, Knightsbridge Capital Group), Dr. Shazia Ghani (Team Lead, PM Special Initiatives Cell, in her personal capacity), Dr. Vaqar Ahmed, (Joint Executive Director, SDPI), Dr. Salamat Ali (Trade Economist, Common­wealth Secretariat), and Maheen Rahman (Chief Executive Officer at Infra Zamin Pakistan)

The EAG would like to especially thank Syed Javed Hassan and Dr. Ahmed Pir­zada for doing major part of writing in this document as well as extensive inputs provided by Ali Salman, Dr. Aadil Nakhoda, Dr. Vaqar Ahmed, Samir Ahmed and Mueen Batlay.

The group earlier submitted this document to the Planning Commission as a contribution to national economic debate on voluntary basis and is grateful to the office of the Chief Economist for providing this opportunity.

Economic Freedom of the World 2021

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Economic Freedom of the World 2021

Pakistan scores low in world economic freedom report 2021
Pakistan on a downward trajectory in economic freedom

Islamabad, Pakistan—In the Fraser Institute’s annual Economic Freedom of the World report 2021, Pakistan scored 5.95 out of 10 in terms of economic freedom and lie in bottom quartile, an illustration that country is not economically free.

In this year’s report, Pakistan ranks 142nd  based on 2019 data, the most recent comprehensive data, part of a downward trend since 2016. (Last year, Pakistan ranked 133rd with a score of 6.07.

“Due to higher taxes and increased regulation in Pakistan, people are less economically free, which means slower economic growth and less investment in the country,” said Fred McMahon, Dr. Michael A. Walker Research Chair in Economic Freedom at the Fraser Institute.

“Pakistan is not economically free. This is not a secret. There is a possible relationship between our economic constraints with the restrictions we impose on our individuals and enterprises. Fraser’s report points to some of these restrictions” said Ali Salman, Executive Director PRIME.

The report, which was first launched in 1996, measures economic freedom—the ability of individuals to make their own economic decisions—by analyzing the policies and institutions of 165 countries and territories. Indicators include regulation, freedom to trade internationally, size of government, property rights, government spending and taxation.

People living in countries with high levels of economic freedom enjoy greater prosperity, more political and civil liberties, and longer lives.

For example, countries in the top quartile of economic freedom had an average per- capita GDP of US$50,619 in 2019, compared to US$5,911 for bottom quartile countries, and US$1,284 for Pakistan. And poverty rates are lower. In the top quartile, 0.9 percent of the population experienced extreme poverty (US$1.90 a day) compared to 34.1 percent in the lowest quartile.

Finally, life expectancy is 81.1 years in the top quartile of countries compared to 65.9 years in the bottom quartile, and 67 years in Pakistan.

Pakistan achieved physical security by investing in nuclear capability. We need economic security by investing in our people and institutions and by disinvesting the state from areas where it is not needed. This is the essence of economic freedom.

The Fraser Institute produces the annual Economic Freedom of the World report in cooperation with the Economic Freedom Network, a group of independent research and educational institutes in nearly 100 countries and territories, including PRIME Institute in Pakistan. It’s the world’s premier measurement of economic freedom.

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Afzal Khan; afzal@primeinstitute.org or call at 03330588885

State owned Electricity Distribution Companies: A Performance Review

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State owned Electricity Distribution Companies: A Performance Review

Electricity Distribution Companies’ losses mounts to Rs.1355 billion

PRIME’s new report, “STATE OWNED ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES: A PERFORMANCE REVIEW” finds unsatisfactory performance of state-owned power sector distribution companies and recommended policy reforms. The distribution companies are continuously accumulating losses, which amounts to Rs.1355 billion in five years (2016-2020). The report highlights the underlying reason of inefficiencies such as delay in the structural reforms and continuous bailouts by government, which eliminates the need of improvement.

From 2016-2020, the report highlights that the distribution companies accumulated the loss of Rs. 452 billion in terms of inability to recover billed amount, while loss of Rs. 195 billion was accrued due to outdated transmission and distribution infrastructure.  The underlying reason for T&D losses remains lack of adequate investment on behalf of some distribution companies while some invested more than the allowed limit. The distribution companies were also found to be in breach of NEPRA targets, and for which small penalties were also imposed but there is still prevalence of defiance. Therefore, government has to bailout distribution companies every year to keep them afloat, which costed Rs. 708.4 billion in the stated period.

Despite the surplus generation capacity in the country, there is still prevalence of power outages and consumers faced average daily load-shedding of more than two hours in some regions. Consumers also faced disruption in services for which complaints were registered and some distribution companies received large complaints thus depicting low consumer satisfaction.

Public safety is an important component of the performance evaluation and incidence of 680 fatal accidents in five years display a grim picture and non-compliance of safety protocols. Furthermore, NEPRA also appears unable to ensure the implementation of safety protocols.

The report displays delays in the provision of new utility connections to the public depending upon the size of population. Total pending connections stood at 1.2 million in five years. These delays can be attributed to underutilization of surplus generation capacity.

The report recommends that government should undertake policy and technical reforms for higher efficiency of the sector. Therefore, a sustainable framework is needed for power sector reforms starting with complete or segment wise privatization of state owned entities, review of tariff regime to reflect costs and better implementation of policies through more empowered and resourceful NEPRA. Besides policy reforms, attention is also needed towards up-gradation of entire distribution infrastructure to curb losses.

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For inquiries, please contact afzal@primeinstitute.org or call at 03330588885.

Economic Freedom Promotes Upward Income Mobility

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Economic Freedom Promotes Upward Income Mobility

New study shows increased economic freedom leads to greater income mobility for workers and entrepreneurs

Islamabad, Pakistan—Economic freedom enhances income mobility while the poor in unfree nations have fewer opportunities to escape poverty and build prosperity, finds a new study released today by Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) in conjunction with Canada’s Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan public policy think-tank.

“The main purpose of economic development should be to provide opportunities for upward social mobility of a vast majority of citizens. This can be achieved through inclusive economic policies and re-allocation of resources from rent seeking to efficiency seeking activities” said Ali Salman, Executive Director PRIME.

Many factors contribute to economic freedom but the most important for income mobility are rule of law and restrictive regulations. In uneconomically free nations, domineering government and crony elites use the rule of law, not to protect the freedom of all but entrench the privilege of their cliques while undermining the rights of everyone else.

Similarly, regulations are too often used to exclude people from work and opportunity, even in nations with a relatively robust rule of law. Government regulation may require workers to purchase occupational licenses or train to acquire credentials before they can work.

Pakistan ranked 139 in rule of law, ranked 140 in economic freedom and 123 in regulations; the country stood at 137 in terms of labor market regulations and 109 in business regulations.

“Government regulations impede the ability of workers to make themselves better off by slowing the upward mobility of workers,” said Vincent Geloso, an assistant professor of economics at George Mason University, senior fellow at the Fraser Institute and co-author of Economic Freedom Promotes Upward Income Mobility

The study shows that labor regulations across industries slow wage growth for low-income workers. And, particularly, inappropriate minimum wages and occupational licencing tends to hurt income growth among the poor more than among higher-income workers.

The same effect is also observed for would-be entrepreneurs who face barriers to entering certain industries because of regulatory costs and fees.

“If governments are genuine in their desire to help low-income workers climb the income ladder during the COVID recovery and beyond, they should take a second look at regulations and look for ways to increase economic freedom in their respective jurisdictions,” Geloso said.

The Fraser Institute produces the annual Economic Freedom of the World report in cooperation with the Economic Freedom Network, a group of independent research and educational institutes in nearly 100 countries and territories, including PRIME Institute in Pakistan. It’s the world’s premier measurement of economic freedom.

Click below to read full report:

Economic-Freedom-Promotes-Upward-Income-Mobility.pdf

MEDIA CONTACT:
Afzal Khan:
afzal@primeinstitute.org or call at 03330588885

Petrol Crisis in Pakistan

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Petrol Crisis in Pakistan

Petrol prices in Pakistan fluctuate every month as the Oil Companies Advisory Committee recommends prices following international oil prices. Pakistan spent $13.93 billion dollars on imports classified under the petroleum group in FY 2019. Approximately 57% of petroleum oil is used for transport.

As per a statement by a spokesperson of Shell Pakistan, an abrupt increase in petroleum demand was one reason behind the depletion of their stocks. However, OGRA contends that there was no shortage of petrol in the country. As per the federal cabinet, OMCs pocketed windfall gains when oil prices were high but were reluctant to bear losses when prices went down.

To read more, download the PRIME note given below:

Petrol Crisis in Pakistan

Policy Note on petrol crises in pakistan

Justifying Employment Termination

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Justifying Employment Termination

This case study is part of the project being undertaken by Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) with support from Atlas Network. The aim is ‘Making Pakistan a Trusted Business Partner’ through improving Pakistan’s ranking and score in ‘Enforcing Contracts’ and to improve the overall ranking of the country in the World Bank’s Doing Business Index over 2016-18.
A lengthy, cumbersome and costly mechanism to seek enforcement of contracts is detrimental to the business environment of a country. Investors shy away from such economies where rule of law is weak and uncertainty looms large. Therefore it is important for achieving a favorable investment climate in the country that business contracts get honored and where a dispute arises, it can be settled at a suitable cost and time duration.
All names mentioned in the case herein have been changed to protect privacy. Real court cases, where final order has been passed, have been picked for illustrating the nature of disputes and the issues with the contract enforcement mechanism in Pakistan. The case studies do not mean to comment on the justness or unjustness of the arguments presented by any party to a case.
All publications by PRIME Institute can be viewed online at primeinstitute.org

Circular Debt (2016)

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Analytical Reports are independent evidence based studies on the investment climate, economic policies and demographic changes in Pakistan, prepared to improve understanding of business and policy challenges faced by the country’s private sector to help steer it on path of growth. This report focuses on Circular Debt.

Circular debt is the shortfall in collections by an entity which causes it to withhold payments to its suppliers spreading the cash crunch to the whole supply chain. More specifically, with regards to Pakistan’s power sector, circular debt refers to unpaid bills by DISCOs to key players especially: oil companies, gas companies, IPPs, and WAPDA.

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Deconstructing Circular Debt

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

 

A new report issued by an independent think tank PRIME has warned that continuous build-up of the circular debt, which stands at an all-time high of 5.2% of GDP, poses a threat to the country’s energy security and consumer welfare. The report acknowledges the federal government’s efforts to reduce capacity payment liabilities and its plans to introduce a long-overdue competitive market regime. The Prime report mentions that the share of renewables in the energy mix has gone down from 8.2% to 2.4%.

The key messages of the report are: for every unit of electricity produced, on average only Rs. 14 is collected as opposed to its real cost of Rs. 21, adding the difference of Rs. 7 to the ever-mounting ledger of circular debt. The circular debt build-up is attributed to multiple causes namely, Tariff Differential Subsidy, Capacity Payments, T&D and Recovery Losses, and Governance Issues. The report establishes that this has led to an unprecedented level of circular debt amounting to Rs. 2.3 trillion.

To read the report click on PDF

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Deconstructing Circular Debt

State owned enterprises in Pakistan (2017)

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Policy Report is a monthly publication that provides actionable intelligence at both micro and macro levels of the economy. Each report is segmented into: Business Climate Review, Market Analysis and bird-eye view of major Economic Indicators. It is a one stop information hub for business leaders, SMEs, Corporations, trade commissioners, MNCs, Institutions and Individuals aspiring to understand the policy dynamics, business prospects and interpretations of key economic indicators.

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State coercion and the fledgling enterprises in Sharaqpur (2014)

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State coercion and the fledgling enterprises in Sharaqpur (2014)

This study is based on a survey of 100 small scale enterprises based in Sharaqpur, a small town near Lahore. The study aims at understanding the dynamics of small scale entrepreneurs as they interact with with the government on their path of survival and growth. The study provides an inventory of workable recommendations requiring changes in the laws, regulations, and attitude that these industrious entrepreneurs face on daily basis.

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