Govts policies to revive economy- International Investment
Objectives:
Reduce the cost of doing business.
Streamlining federal and provincial government.
Formation of industry cluster.
Achieving policy convergence across fiscal, monetary and trade policies.
Mahrukh Hameed: The Govt is concerned within aim to bring about the kind of changes you know quick fixes would you say these are quick fixes?
Ali Salman: Well these are the major aim of setting up the special investment facilitation council goes as per the announcement goes beyond the quick fixes and here they are talking about not only reducing the cost of doing business but also the streamline the business regulations improving the facilitation or coordination between federal and provincial govt and also setting up industrial zones so this is a long term plan and one key feature of this plan is according to the govt’s announcement that they will improve the coordination between the civilian and military leadership of the state rights and the assumption on the underlying you know plan is that specially when we talk about external investors they look for stability in the govt and unfortunately the political govts in the last few years have not been able to provide that stability in policy outlook so we can agree or disagree but the under on the objective is to ensure the stability and also to start systematic or institutional reforms a lot of these have been there in the past also I think a high level of coordination between military and civil leadership was not there at least this scale we observed some of these for instance in CEPEC authority in the past which was then closed down we also observed during FATF when Pakistan was fighting Its case there was significant coordination between the two side of the state. I think this is another stage where a lot of details to be still you know unveiled. So, it is too early to say unless we hear about those terms and conditions under which these investments are been planned.
Mahrukh Hameed: Do you agree with Dr Qais Aslam?
I mean of course tourism is the huge part or should be a huge part of any
economy. In the past we saw some inroads being made but they never really
materialized is that you know it is why have we consistently failed in that
direction. Do you think it has to do
with stability also our security situation a multitude of factors.
Ali Salman: Tourism is definitely one of the most important potential areas and before we go into the sector ill like to take a step back like to add something which DR Khaqan was saying and this is import point that whether we are able to move from a debt creating instrument to non-debt creating instrument and hoping the FDI that we will attract now under this policy wouldbe actually known that creating. Now this is what we assumed earlier when we were you know bringing Chinese investment in the power sector right. So, on the paper this is not a loan this is an investment in the IPB mod. But the terms and conditions are such that this sovereign guarantees were secured and because of those sovereign guarantees the liabilities have been build intoour system whether we are able to use the electricity produced by Chinese IPPS or not we have to pay the bills and so you know those details are yet to announced therefor I really hope that when we are talking from forinstance one of the announcement which was made recently was by Abu Dhabi port that they have shown commitment to invest USD 1.8 bn in managing the Karachi port trust when the current the arrangement expire. now what will be terms and conditions of this arrangement whether will be bringing any kind of sovereign guarantee or not whether it will be a private sector participation would be there or not and, on that note, if you look at the formation of the SIFC and the subcommittees one thing which you will notice is that that there a lot of coordination between the govt across Ministries across the civilian Military side of the govt. Although technically military has no direct role in economic governance. But we are seeing the private sector is largely missing from the composition and I think one of the importantstakeholders should have been the association like overseas chambers like other associations which are really bringing or have brought significant amount of private sector investment and one can argue whether this private sector investment has increased efficiency in govt or in Pakistan economy or not whether this is as we call as market seeking investment. Those discussions must be framed but hopefully when we get more details about these contracts, we can be able to comment more on that later.
Mahrukh Hameed: Is it true that there is a criticism as far as the private is concerned that they are largely rent seekers?
Ali Salman: Well again ifyou prioritize one sector to another sector for instance in the past auto sectors and textile sector and in the recent real estate sector were our favorite. When you do this pick and choose of winners and loser within private sector, what happens govt announce special privileges, special incentives, tax holidays which then create protection which will lead to rent seeking. So, this should not be the case.
Mahrukh Hameed: there was a controversy during the last govt where USD 3 mn to that we have given without any under the RPM. So, there are a lot of issues here that unfortunately we havenot resolved till now.
Ali Salman: Tourism The National assembly standing committee onpublic accountants committee has taken this initiative and try to ear more details of how these funds were utilized. There is a counter argument that during the time of COVID when the demand was compressed and those funds were utilized to keep the industry going, to keep the employment in any stable position so that helped but that's one argument, so we did like to again knowthe details of how this was invested. For instance, was it invested in plant and machinery, or it divested to othersectors of the economy so this is still an open question. A lot of speculation is there but the important thing is that Level playing Field is the most important thing in any of these investment regimes that must be insured right by the govt.
Mahrukh Hameed: Do you agree that we don’t have kind of cohesion synergy what.
Ali Salman: That is the whole idea behind this SIFC that the govt and the leadership in different institutions have realized that there is lack of cohesion. There are already institutions which were supposedly responsible like one window operation. There were many institutions which havenot worked in the past. So, it’s not the issue of perhaps the formation of these bodies but I think we need to see how they function and what kind of results they bring. For instance, one very important area of collaboration which can happen because of this civil military corporation in the economic area. Over last few decades the state have invested billions of dollars in the invested billions of dollars in the defensecapacity and that is also improved the quality of products. Let’s say in the Aerospace sectors but those capabilities have not come out for commercial usage. So, while we talk about defense production is one of the four or five priority areas. I would like tosuggest that defense RND should be picked up as one of the themes under SIFC where the technology spillover and you know it should be allowed to be benefited by the private sector. so, this is exactly what happend after second world war in U.S case where us Govt ensured that the private sector research is they become the customer of the research and they were also supporting funds like DARPA funds. So, this is an example where we can pick, and I hopethat the civil commercial application of this research needs to b fully exploited. If we want real collaboration between civil and the military side in terms of economic governance.
Mahrukh Hameed: As far as this is you know this investment in human capital is concerned. Its again a whirlpool, if we look at any measure that’s being taken it seems like done before but it must be redone differently, would you agree with that, II mean you were doing the same things but there are certain things that have to be done differently because seems to be very innovative in the sense that the measures that have to be taken.
Ali Salman: That I Intend to be agreed with you that a lot of these ideas for instance, the mapping of land for better use of cropping has been there for ages right. So, this is not that we are coming up with news idea altogether we are may be trying to be propose a new mechanism and this is very important to present that we are not short of resources, the question is how we are allocating those resources. For instance, it was pointed out correctly that significant part of the RND goes into the exist salaries 90 too 95 percent theseinstitutions which are responsible for the research 90 to 95 percent of their budget goes into the salaries and not to the actual research. So, if you are not doing actual research then obviously you will not find the productivity improvement which we should expect. So, these are the ground realities. Now which extent these ground realities can be changed by these mega structures that we are seeing now like Apex committee’s implementation this is a big question mark. One of the things which actually when we talk about research is that we should be spending less money in universities and more money in the industry side of research. Every industry has problems like agriculture, engineering, and electronics. You will find problems of efficiency and problem of branding in every industry. They need research but if you give more money to the universities, I’m afraid that lot of money is being wasted in just production of papers but actual problem solving. One more thing I would like to add because we are talking about here collaboration between civil and defense side, one thing which note concerned is this increasing syncretization of our economic policy now it was mentioned for instance drones are under the control of military establishment. in the past we heard this similar case can be made about 3D printers which all over the world is used openly by universities by industrialists by young entrepreneurs to experiment. We can’t import 3D printers because the people in the security establishment I think this is the security threat. We can’t import a drone because it will become a security threat. Now these technologies must be democratized if we want thefruit of this investment to be used by entrepreneurs by innovators, not just in the govt but outside the govt. only then I think we can see real prosperity, otherwise I’m afraid that this top-down approach which SIFC seems to suggest is not going to bring the desirable result in the long run.
Closing remarks by Ali Salman: One of the important takeaway massages especially in the context of SIFC would be ensuring of transparency and credibility. When the Govt says that we will ensure repatriation of capital which the investors will bring now, obviously in the last one year we have seen that given the macroeconomic situation that was stopped. So, that kind of big challenge on the govt shoulders how to bring that kind of transparency. Secondly, when we talk about business regulations and facilitations lets use the existing research which has been done and would to especially mentioned the research done by PIDE on its large series that use the research to improve the regulatory environment and then implement those changes.