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Street Vendor Assembly – Karachi

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Institute, in collaboration with Friedrich Naumann Foundation and National Youth Assembly, has held a Street Vendor Assembly in New Sabzi Mandi, Karachi. Purpose of the assembly was to create awareness among street vendors about their vending rights in country laws that exacerbate their economic plight. Mr. Rabistan Khan, Local MPA, was the Chief Guest at the event.

Zia Banday, Executive Director of PRIME, elaborated on the economic aspects of street vending. He mentioned that this low economic segment is much resilient in survival against all odds, which has emerged due to the uneven imposition of the rule of law. It is impacting the earning capacity of the street vendors, who are the victims of state apathy and at the mercy of different mafias. Street vendors are playing a very important role in serving as a distribution channel for taking the goods of the cottage and small businesses to the low and middle-income groups. Mostly street vendors are from low skilled and rural migrant segments. They are a vital cog in an urban economy, which needs to be taken into account for any city planning.

Ahmed Bashir, a Senior Lawyer and a Research Fellow, said that street vendors are heart of Karachi’s economy.  And yet, Street vending and provision of services escapes attention despite it being the primary means of combating poverty and of economic survival for many inhabitants of the city.  Importance of street vendors as service providers is immense, however, all the laws concerning them are for controlling their economic activity and there are hardly any workable provisions for facilitating them and to improve their working conditions and general betterment.

Rabistan Khan , highlighted the plight of street vendors in Karachi. He did mention the lack of protection to street vendors and their continuous fear of being uprooted from their place of business. He demanded the government to provide them. He has given his full support to initiative for improving the environment for street vending. He mentioned his commitment for introduction for any legislative bill in the provincial assembly in this regards.

 Hanan Ali Abbasi, President of National Youth Assembly, has reiterated the engagement of youth in supporting the cause of street vendors for improved rights and enhanced livelihood.

In a question & answer session, various street vendors elaborated on difficulties they face in running their business. They said the absence of civic humanities in the Mandi area despite collection of hefty taxes by market committee.

PRIME Institute did announce constituting of a working group that will comprise of elected representatives, street vendors and civil society to lobby government for improving upon the legal structure for the street vendors.

Street Vendor Assembly-Quetta

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Institute, held its 4th Street Vendor Assembly, at Baldia Ground, Quetta. The assembly was arranged in collaboration with the National Youth Assembly. It was attended by a large number of street vendors, operating in various neighborhoods of Quetta City. Senator Naseeb-ullah Bazai was the chief guest at the occasion.

Muhammad Ali, Chief Metropolitan Officer and Rahim Agha, President Anjuman e Tajiran Quetta were also present.

Zia Banday, Joint Executive Director, PRIME elaborated on the background and rationale of this assembly. He informed the audience that the street vendors around the country are suffering from inadequate legal protection, which makes make them susceptible to  uprooting by municipalities and law enforcement agencies.

The government efforts in providing physical facilities for alleviating suffering of the poor are vital but protection of vending rights will enhance the productivity and earning capacity of this low income of the society.

Mr. Ahmed Bashir, prominent lawyer, mentioned that the street vendors in Pakistan are affectees due to unawareness  of their rights and state apathy towards them.

Laws pertaining to street vending needs improvement. Efforts will be made to engage street vendor representative, municipality and civil society to prepare a new street vendor bill for covering vending rights in the cities.

Hanan Ali Abbasi, President National Youth Assembly, addressed the audience about the dichotomy of haves and have nots in the society.

He pointed out towards vast income gulf prevalent under current economic dispensation. In his opinion, the situation is unsustainable and real change is only possible from the bottom up approach.

Muhammad Ali , Chief Metropolitan Officer, inform the participants about the efforts undertaken by the municipality to resolve the issue. He asked the street vendor community to pay attention on educating their children. He told them that education is an optimal path for their social mobility.

Mr. Raheem, president Arjanman e Tajran, did talk about the problems faced by the street vendors in the city. He defined them as a vital part of the local city economy and their contribution cannot be ignored.

Senator Naseeb-ullah, in his concluding remarks, appreciated the efforts of PRIME  in highlighting a critical issue for the sustenance of one of the most deprived sections of the society.

He told the street vendor, that as a political representative, he is well aware of their difficult operating environment. He will make his all efforts to take the voice of street vendors at the provincial and federal level. He will support the PRIME initiative for a new street vendor bill. At the end of the assembly, different street vendor vent out about their problems, which they are facing at the ends of city administration. Callous state attitude is depriving them of their livelihood and pushing them in the poverty trap.

Zia Banday announced the formation of a working group comprising of an elected representative of street vendors, government officials and civil society to work on the development of street vendor bill.

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)- Economic Development Unit (EDU)

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

 

A MoU signing ceremony was held in the Mayor’s Office, Peshawar, for the setting up of Economic Development Unit (EDU). MoU Signatories included City District Government Peshawar, Sarhad Chamber of Commerce & Industry, UN Habitat and PRIME Institute, an Economic Think Tank. Purpose of the EDU is to serve as a platform for the Peshawar Municipality to engage broader stakeholders in the facilitation of economic development of Peshawar. Through EDU, Peshawar Municipality will be striving to attain 3 goals of job creation, investment flow and tax generation.

Mr. Asim Khan, Mayor of Peshawar, welcomed the signatories at his office. He elaborated on the utility of EDU for the economic development of Peshawar. He mentioned that a city needs to create jobs and bring investments for spreading prosperity. He linked the business growth with the increase in tax revenues for the municipality. This tax flow is essential to fund the municipal services and improve upon their quality. In this manner, city livability rises that further enhances economic competitiveness.

Mr. Faiz Muhammad, President Sarhad Chamber, has assured about the commitment of business community of Peshawar in backing the EDU venture. He was of the opinion that EDU will contribute in creating job and business opportunities. He thanked the Mayor of Peshawar for extending his backing for the EDU and engaging broader business community for economic coalition building.

Mr. Jawed Ali Khan, Country Representative of UN Habitat, has defined the role of UN in supporting LED initiatives in Pakistan and other countries. He mentioned that UN Habitat is looking to establish similar EDUs in 10-largest cities of Pakistan. He highlighted the vital role of municipalities in economic development for job creation and investment solicitation. He reiterated his understanding of the utility of EDU in expanding economic horizons of Peshawar.

Mr. Zia Banday, Joint Executive Director of PRIME, has highlighted their involvement in economic-related initiatives for Peshawar. He did mention that this work is line with PTI government vision of empowering and engaging local governments in economic development. EDU mechanics will comprise of a bottom-up approach, whereby Municipality will be contributing to the federal and provincial pro-growth and poverty alleviation agenda. Mr. Banday did inform that EDU will be embarking on its first initiative of preparing an Economic Development Strategy of Peshawar. Based upon this strategy, further LED initiatives will be designed and implemented.  

The MoU signing ceremony was attended by a number of Municipal officials and representatives of the business community of Peshawar. Zahid Nadeem, Town-1 Nazim, Shafiq Rehman, Director General Peshawar Municipality and Mr. Haris Mufti, Vice President Sarhad Chamber were also in attendance.

1st Working Group Meeting Street Vendor Project- Capitalism from Below

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Background:

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), in collaboration with Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF), National Youth Assembly and Ahmed Bashir & Associates had conducted its 1st Working Group meeting of Street Vendor Project in Islamabad. Known as “thelay walay” in local vernacular, these street vendors make a valuable contribution by bringing the market to one’s doorstep. Their role, in the livelihood sustenance of poorer segments of the society, cannot be underestimated. The project targets five cities namely Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, and Quetta and comprises of two phases. Under its first phase, Street Vendor Assemblies have been organized in four cities (Islamabad, Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta) while the second phase focuses on working group meetings to be held in each of the aforementioned cities. Under this project, PRIME has taken the initiative to draft a legislative bill for regulating and protecting the rights of street vendors in Pakistan. For the purpose, a focus group discussion was held to solicit feedback from multiple stakeholders on the preparation of the Legislative Bill.

Participants:

The target audience for this working group meeting included an array of participants from the municipality, businesses, multilateral, academia, media, and vending community. Mr. Sajid Abbasi, Chairman of Metropolitan Corporation Islamabad and Mr. Tikka Khan, Ex-Federal Minister and Secretary-General of All Pakistan Newspaper Seller Federation graced the event with their presence. 25 in the number of participants attended the discussion.

Proceedings :

The Forum started with a welcome address and a brief overview of the street vendor project given by Ms. Beenish Javed, Research Associate, PRIME. She highlighted the rationale and objectives of the meeting. In doing so, she also shed light on the economic significance of the vending community, the challenges facing their livelihoods and the need to regulate and protect their vending rights. It was followed by a presentation on “Street Vendors’ Rights” by Mr. Ahmed Bashir, Advocate, Ahmed Bashir & Associates. He outlined the challenges facing vendors, plausible solutions to their problems and essential features of the draft legislative bill. Thereafter, the forum was opened for a focus group discussion.

Discussion:

Mr. Ahmed Bashir briefed that the legislative bill would cover aspects related to the demarcation of vending zones, licensing, compensation, penalties, the formation of a representative body, establishment of vendors’ association, provision of micro-credit, redressal mechanism and formulation of a national policy for street vendors. He emphasized that in order to provide legal recognition to street vendors, declaration of clearly demarcated vending zones is a priority. While discussing the essential features of the draft bill, he proposed that the license fee should not exceed Rs. 100 per month. Additionally, it should contain the names of family members, including women.

Street vendors present at the meeting shared the extent of humiliation they have to encounter at the hands of police and unelected market committee. They feel powerless and despite paying bribes, feel insecure and fearful owing to uncertainty in their tenure. Their carts are often confiscated by the CDA without any compensation or reimbursement for the damages caused to their products. They also mentioned how complex it is to retrieve their carts from the CDA. They said most of the vendors are unaware of the nearby local dispensary and those, who are aware, do argue that it is of little use due to inadequate availability of medicines. Other participants suggested that public-private partnership is the key to improving the plight of vendors. In this regard, they suggested signing MoU with the Planning Commission in order to take this initiative forward with the requisites of Ehsaas Program.

Mr. Hanan Abbasi, President, National Youth Assembly reiterated the engagement of youth in supporting the cause of street vendors for improved rights and enhanced livelihood. Mr. Sajid Abbasi, Chairman, Metropolitan Corporation Islamabad touched upon the fragmented governance structure at Islamabad and mentioned that he is well aware of the plight of the street vendors. Despite the administrative constraints, he assured that efforts would be made to provide relief to the vendors. The forum ended with a vote of thanks from Mr. Tikka Khan, Ex-Federal Minister & Secretary General of All Pakistan Newspaper Seller Federation who reassured his full support to the organizations involved in this project.

Policy Dialogue – Fiscal Federalism & Devolution-Peshawar

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) organized a policy dialogue on fiscal federalism and devolution, at Pearl Continental, Peshawar. A select group of the informed audience was invited to participate in the discussion. Participants belonged to a diverse background of government, academia, business, media, and civil society. PRIME is conducting these dialogues in all four provincial capital cities in the country.

These sessions serve to provide a platform to the concerned stakeholders across the country to provide their inputs to PRIME’s ongoing research. For the purpose, PRIME has engaged five economists for authoring policy papers on 5- different NFC related issues. And these authors are part of all these provincial level dialogues.

Inter-governmental resource distribution is more of a political matter rather than a purely economic one. All decisions reached the National Finance Commission have to be reached at by a consensus. Therefore, in order to come up with pragmatic recommendations, research authors from PRIME are holding consultative sessions across the country. Peshawar session was moderated by Shehryar Aziz, whereas authors briefed the audience on their respective NFC paper. It was followed by an open discussion at the forum.

Dr. Ghulam Samad (Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Climate Change, PIDE)

Pakistan does not have a framework for provincial government expenditures. The federal authorities are collecting almost 98 percent of the total revenue and the provincial governments’ total expenditures are more than that of the federal expenditures. While the provincial governments’ expenditures are increasing, the same trend cannot be observed in the provinces’ contribution to revenue growth. The forum voiced its concern that while the federal government is seeking a great share in the gross divisible pool, at the same time it is vying to take over control of major hospitals from the provincial government in Karachi.

Dr. Sajid Amin (Head, Policy Solutions Lab, SDPI)

Granting such a high weightage to the population as a resource distribution criterion needs to be evaluated. When the population has a weightage of 80 percent in the horizontal distribution formula, other important indicators get left with very insignificant weightage.

Provinces that have a high population naturally are in need of greater resources to be able to meet their needs. When the population has such a high weightage in the resource distribution formula, this creates an incentive for the provinces for not keeping a lid on their population growth rates.

A major sticking point in the NFC discussions is achieving a consensus. And that becomes further difficult when certain stakeholders do not even sit at the table for discussions. Case in point is the first meeting of the recently reconstituted NFC, which was not attended by Chief Minister Mr. Murad Ali Shah, the representative of Sindh province.

Shahid Mehmood (Public Policy Consultant; Instructor, Pakistan Institute of Trade & Development)

Under article 160 of the constitution of Pakistan, the provinces have ownership of their natural resources. However, it is seen that the federal government exercises far more control over them as against the provincial governments. For example, it is the federal government which bi-annually determines the well-head pricing.

This argument was further strengthened by the participants who questioned that if oil and gas are shared resources; then where is the representation of provincial representatives on the boards of SOEs operating in the Oil and Gas sectors? Granting the right of collection of revenue (that is eventually transferred to provinces in the form of straight transfers) to provincial governments is currently disadvantageous for the federal government, which faces a budgetary shortfall of Rs.2 trillion.

Unfortunately, the districts from which natural resources are being extracted, their human development indicators are faring too bad as compared to other settled districts in the country. Neither the provincial nor the federal government spares a thought about the uplift of these areas.

Sohaib Jamali (Editor, BR Research)

Discussants at the forum spoke on the need to adhere to the constitution. It was pointed out that before the NFC deliberated upon a new formula for resource distribution, one must first ensure compliance on the existed formula. As per the participants, KP is still deprived of its due share in net hydel profits. There is a severe trust deficit between the federal government and the provinces. How can then a new formula benefit from a consensus, when the formula that has previously been agreed upon is not being respected?

Sohaib elaborated that the issue of Provincial Finance Commission (PFC) is an entirely provincial domain. If there is some bone of contention between the federal and provincial governments, it does not mean that the provinces should not proceed with improving their PFCs or empowering their districts. Provinces’ grievances with the federation and the subject of municipal empowerment are mutually exclusive. Out of a provincial finance commission comprising of 12 members, 8 are bureaucrats and only 4 are elected representatives of the people. So if there is tilted representation on the PFC, this cannot be justified with lack of mistrust between the federation and the provinces.

Policy Dialogue – Fiscal Federalism & Devolution -Karachi

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) organized a policy dialogue on fiscal federalism and devolution, at Karachi Marriott Hotel. A select group of the informed audience was invited to participate in the discussion. Participants belonged to a diverse background of government, academia, business, media, and civil society. PRIME is conducting these dialogues in all four provincial capital cities in the country. These sessions serve to provide a platform to the concerned stakeholders across the country to provide their inputs to PRIME’s on-going research. For the purpose, PRIME has engaged five economists for authoring policy papers on 5- different NFC related issues. And these authors are part of all these provincial level dialogues. Inter-governmental resource distribution is more of a political matter rather than a purely economic one. All decisions reached at the National Finance Commission have to be reached at by a consensus. Therefore, in order to come up with pragmatic recommendations, research authors from PRIME are holding consultative sessions across the country.

The Karachi session was moderated by Dr. Imtiaz Bhatti, Additional Secretary (Coordination) at Chief Secretary’s Secretariat, Government of Sindh; whereas the panelists briefed the audience on their respective NFC paper.

Dr. Ghulam Samad (Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Climate Change, PIDE)

Pakistan does not have a framework for provincial government expenditures. The federal authorities are collecting almost 98 percent of the total revenue and the provincial governments’ total expenditures are more than that of the federal expenditures. While the provincial governments’ expenditures are increasing, the same trend cannot be observed in the provinces’ contribution to revenue growth. The panelist posed the following questions before the forum:

1. Is there a need for expenditure framework for the provinces?

2. Should it really be a mandate of the NFC to discuss transparency and accountability?

3. What kind of incentives should be given to the provincial governments to encourage them to increase their own revenues? 4. Do the provinces need a fiscal responsibility law?

Dr. Naimat U. Khan (Assistant Professor, Institute of Management Sciences, University of Peshawar)

The panelist sought the forum’s opinion on the suggestion that the two territories of Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir should be treated like other provinces, so that a permanent percentage of divisible pool can be allocated for the two. This way they will not be each year dependent upon the federal government’s share of resources.

In case of Balochistan there is a protection with respect to the minimum percentage of share in divisible pool. Dr. Naimat posed the question whether there can be any such protection for GB/AJK or not? Can the federation assign a fixed percentage of non-tax resources for GB/AJK?

Dr. Sajid Amin (Head, Policy Solutions Lab, SDPI)

Granting such a high weightage to population as a resource distribution criteria needs to be revaluated. When population has a weightage of 82 percent in the horizontal distribution formula, other important indicators get left with very insignificant weightage.Provinces that have a high population naturally are in need of greater resources to be able to meet their needs. When population has such a high weightage in the resource distribution formula, this creates an incentive for the provinces for not keeping a lid on their population growth rates.

Poverty is given a weightage of 10 percent. It is proposed that this indicator should be substituted with poverty distance. Furthermore, the value obtained for poverty distance shall then be multiplied with the population in the province as this figure will be more representative of the actual needs of the province, with respect to poverty alleviation. The major resistance in the current NFC negotiations is coming from the province of Sindh. The question is what will be the level of willingness of the government of Sindh in undertaking population control initiatives?

Shahid Mehmood (Economic Policy Consultant; Instructor, Pakistan Institute of Trade & Development)

Under article 160 of the constitution of Pakistan, the provinces have ownership of their natural resources. However, it is seen that the federal government exercises far more control over them as against the provincial governments. For example, it is the federal government which bi-annually determines the wellhead pricing. Granting the right of collection of revenue (that is eventually transferred to provinces in the form of straight transfers) to provincial governments is currently disadvantageous for the federal government, which faces a budgetary shortfall of Rs.2 trillion.

Unfortunately, the districts from which natural resources are being extracted, their human development indicators are faring too bad as compared to other settled districts in the country. Neither the provincial nor the federal government spares a thought about the uplift of these areas.

Sohaib Jamali (Editor, BR Research)

Sindh has been without a Provincial Finance Commission for the last so many years. As per Sindh Local Government laws, property taxes, taxes on transfer of immovable property, tax on professions, trades and 4 callings, lie in the domain of local government. But realistically speaking it is still being levied and collected by the provincial government. From the perspective of PFC, development spending is still top-down instead of being the other way round.

There are thirteen/fourteen members of the PFC in Sindh of which 6 out rightly belong to the provincial government. Two are from the private sector, nominated by the provincial government. This is to say that if the district governments/local government are not fairly represented on the PFC, how fair would an award really be?

Delivering 5m homes via markets

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Delivering 5m homes via markets

Ali Salman

Incentives will push private sector to deploy resources for building housing units

Prime Minister Imran Khan. PHOTO: RADIO PAKISTAN

ISLAMABAD: The most important promise that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) made to the people in the economic domain was the construction of five million homes targeting the poor segments of the populace.

Three years on, we have seen the launch of Naya Pakistan Housing Programme (NPHP), along with the announcement of subsidised mortgages for the low-income customers.

As of today, 1,500 housing units have been delivered whereas another 5,000 units in different cities are being built. Even then, the attribution of these units exclusively to NPHP is debatable as housing is technically a provincial domain.

At this rate, if the government is lucky, NPHP will hardly deliver 1% of its target by the end of PTI’s tenure.

Home ownership matters not only for urban planning, but also for providing an asset-backed security for people. One may also spot a case of market failure – all new housing schemes launched by the private sector attract only the middle and upper classes.

And arguably, 40% of Pakistan’s population comprising low-income and low middle income will remain deprived if we were to depend on the private sector. That is why we need the government to fill this gap and deliver.

This is the basic premise of all housing programmes that governments launch. NPHP is no exception. However, this approach is fundamentally flawed.

Last week, Safiya Homes, a private organisation working to provide affordable housing solutions for the low income, delivered keys to the first batch of 400 owners in Lahore. These families could not have imagined owning a house of their own as their average monthly income is a meagre PKR 40k-60k.

This organisation is currently developing a number of projects across the country with plans to deliver 5,000 houses by 2023. They have successfully mobilised both domestic and foreign investment to the tune of Rs4 billion.

The private sector works for incentives. In the case of housing market, the incentives, largely driven by a set of rules, practices and demand, mainly disfavour any business model for the low-income people.

This “market failure” can be corrected by altering the incentive structure. Once this is corrected, we will see vast resources being deployed by the private sector in the low-income housing segment, thus not only helping the new homeowners, but also achieving the prime minister’s vision.

The missing insight is that affordable housing is not a game of margins but a game of time.

Typically, the maximum margins on an affordable housing project would be 50% over the life of the project, ie five years, resulting in an annualised ROI of 10%. This is not attractive for private capital, especially in the financial scenario of Pakistan, where inflation is touching 10%.

However, if these five years can be reduced to half – 2.5 years – the annualised ROI will double to 20%, thus making it attractive for the private capital.

The challenge is to re-engineer the planning and approval process. The time that it takes from planning to execution of a housing scheme can be reduced by cutting down the time required to issue an NOC from the current maximum of 36 months to six months.

The good news is that in the case of Punjab, the government has passed legislation to allow Punjab Housing and Town Planning Agency (PHATA) to effectively reduce the time to below six months in the case of affordable housing. This needs to be executed, replicated and demonstrated by all provincial governments.

After approval, the next stage is to develop the scheme, lay down trunk infrastructure and build houses. The time required for development and building houses will be largely a function of the developer’s capacity and demand.

While the private sector can be mobilised to increase the speed to deliver in about nine months, the time required to sell the units can be minimised too.

There is a lack of trust by the citizens in private sector developers, and for the right reason. The government or a regulatory body can help in the certification of developers.

At the same time, the government can assess aggregate demand of the applicants and can channel it to the private sector after appropriate screening.

Obviously, to make it work, transparent criteria for the selection of beneficiaries and transmission of information to the private sector will be critical.

If the demand can be aggregated and developers certified, the sales time period can be cut from a matter of years to a few weeks, thus helping the private sector to achieve financial close.

The end-result of altering the set of incentives will be increased annual ROI for the private sector – to the tune of 33%, more homes delivered in a shorter time and finally no more fiscal burden on taxpayers’ money.

As the project location decision is made by the private sector, supported by the demand data shared by the government, the success probability of the project goes up significantly.

If one private group like Safiya Homes can deliver affordable homes, this can be replicated and scaled by other private groups as well. This needs to be aided by reforms in mortgage laws about which significant progress has been made already.

Thus, it is possible to correct market failure of the private sector in the housing market by changing rules and by bringing in government where it really matters.

The writer is founder and executive director of PRIME, an independent economic policy think tank

Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2021.

Growth rate of 3.94% not surprising

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Growth rate of 3.94% not surprising

Ali Salman

Govt must be committed to reforms without which growth cannot be sustainable

The FBR had reported its total tax collection in the last fiscal year at Rs3.998 trillion, which the sources said, the AGRP has shown at Rs3.898 trillion in its accounts.. STOCK IMAGE

ISLAMABAD: When the National Accounts Committee published an estimate of 3.94% economic growth based on the July 2020-April 2021 period, it caught most of the commentators by surprise and the estimate was disputed.

In this article, we argue that this should not have been the case, using insights obtained from our analysis.

For the last 18 months, we have published a monthly index, which takes into account Pakistan’s macro-economy based on the analysis of four periodic datasets: trade volume (TV), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Quantum Index of Large-Scale Manufacturing Industries (QIM) and Long-Term Financing Facility (LTFF). From July 2020 to April 2021, the index has exhibited an upward trend, registering a growth of 19%. It shows that the economy has demonstrated positive growth for all but two months.

Over a 12-month period, the Pakistan Prosperity Index (PPI) depicts an upward trajectory, reaching an all-time high of 128.1 in March 2021. This figure signals an increase in economic prosperity, largely driven by improved business sentiment despite the pandemic.

During March 2021, the increase in trade volume and private sector lending outweighed the decline in purchasing power and output of large-scale manufacturing, thus resulting in the increase in the prosperity index.

With the exception of three months, ie August 2020, February 2021 and March 2021, the large-scale manufacturing exhibited a positive growth throughout the period under review.

On the other hand, the purchasing power (inverse of inflation) showed a slight improvement for two consecutive months, i.e. December 2020 and January 2021, but declined during the rest of the period under review.

The year-on-year inflation came in at 9.1% in March 2021, which further suppressed the purchasing power. This inflationary pressure has been on account of increase in prices of basic food items and higher energy prices. In terms of private sector credit, long-term financing facility has been on the rise during the period under review, standing at an all-time high of Rs325 billion in March 2021. Private sector credit sustained its expansionary trend owing to recovery in economic growth and subsidised borrowing rate.

On the external front, Pakistan’s trade volume remained volatile throughout the period due to dwindling global demand as a result of the pandemic.

Other factors contributing to the dwindling trade performance included inflationary pressures, hikes in electricity tariffs and micro-smart lockdowns. As of March 2021, the trade volume stood at Rs1.2 trillion, increasing by 17.6% month-on-month.

Apparently, the measures taken by the government which included relaxing Covid-induced restrictions, cutting policy rate and providing relief packages to industries in order to shore up economic activity are finally paying off.

The increased economic prosperity, as measured by the PPI, supports the provisional GDP growth estimate of 3.94% for the 2020-21 financial year, as released by the planning ministry. There seems to be a strong correlation between the PPI and the economic growth rate as both exhibit an upward trajectory.

In addition to these variables, a record growth in all crops except for cotton has significantly pushed the economic growth upwards. Higher consumption fueled by the increasing flow of remittances certainly helped as well.

What lies ahead?

Recent bullish episodes at the Pakistan Stock Exchange suggest that the market is beaming with confidence and Pakistan is pivoting to growth. What is notable is that this growth has been backed by reforms, most notably in the exchange rate mechanism.

Also, government decisions to raise electricity tariffs twice despite the political backlash were a good sign. This is where commitment to the IMF can help.

The government must demonstrate greater commitment to reforms without which growth will not be sustainable. Aggressive privatisation and cutting down wasteful expenditures should be its high priority.

Tax and tariff reforms at the structural level are direly needed and latest news suggest that the government is serious. For example, it has indicated the withdrawal of customs duty on the import of 600-plus raw materials – a step which is likely to boost industrialisation.

Lastly, as we presented to the Planning Commission in April, the government should not merely target growth, it should also go for economic transformation.

It must plan for a fundamental resource re-allocation from inefficiencies, both in the private and public sectors, to efficiency and innovation.

As the government finalises the budget, it will become clear to what extent it is committed to these reforms. While it may have to take more unpopular decisions in the next two years, it must stay above electoral temptations. It should also close its doors on the selected business groups lobbying for exemptions, rather it should present budget as a policy to stimulate private sector-led and sustained growth in general.

The writers are associated with PRIME, an independent economic policy think tank based in Islamabad

Published in The Express Tribune, June 7th, 2021.

Busting the middleman myth

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Busting the middleman myth

Ali Salman

Middleman does not deserve all the contempt that is heaped upon him

A farmer sitting in a tractor loaded with sugarcane waits to offload the crop outside a sugar factory in Baghpat district in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, India, February 5, 2021. PHOTO: REUTERS

ISLAMABAD: A constantly hammering theme in Pakistan’s economic policy circles as well as popular debate about economic challenges is the role of middleman who is often considered a source of all types of evil in the market process.

Although the middleman or distributor is an integral part of each economic sector – think who brings clothes from factories to shops, this debate is more pronounced in the agriculture market.

The middleman, it is believed, exploits both the poor farmer and poor consumer and makes exorbitant profit at the cost of social welfare, moral values and efficiency. This obsession with the middleman has consumed energies of economic policymakers as well as commentators to a disproportionate degree and all kinds of “out-of-the-box” solutions are being proposed.

The solution, sometimes stated and sometimes implied, is the elimination of the role of middleman, with the elusive hope that once it is done, prices will come down.

As this article will hopefully show, the middleman, our bogeyman, does not deserve all the contempt, which is heaped upon him. In fact, if anyone understands sound economics – and is ready to listen to the facts – he will begin to appreciate how fundamental role does the middleman play in our day-to-day lives.

Theory should be sufficient guide for those who care. Muslim theologian Imam Ghazali, 800 years before Ricardo, had discovered the theory of comparative advantage, which says, “…farmers live where farming tools are not available. Blacksmiths and carpenters live where farmers are lacking. Naturally, they want to satisfy needs by giving up in exchange part of what they possess.”

Farmers cannot become distributors and consumers cannot drive every day to the fields to get vegetables at ex-farm prices. We need someone to assume risks and earn profit.

For those who do not understand or believe in this theory, here is some data. The Punjab government maintains the Agriculture Marketing Information System (AMIS) and updates the data of prices diligently.

It maintains data of indicative ex-farm costs of various crops and even indicative prices at the doorsteps of mandi – the wholesale market. From the mandi, the commodity is picked up by retailers or distributors and eventually brought to the cities.

While these costs and margins are suggestive, they can always be compared with the actual price data which the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) maintains. Thus, anyone who can compare the ex-farm price with the mandi and finally with the retail can see the extent of margins that the middleman and – for that matter – farmer make.

While the food basket that defines the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has 20 goods, 70% of food expenditure by the bottom 20% income household is made on seven items: fresh milk, flour (atta), three vegetables (potato, onion and tomato), chicken and cooking oil in the same order in terms of burden on expenditure.

I have taken data of wheat and three vegetables, which is available at AMIS and PBS. A note of caution before reading the comparative prices at different levels of the supply chain is in order.

Agriculture markets, especially when they are under all sorts of controls, both by price and trade restrictions, are bound to exhibit greater volatility than other markets. Therefore, probably one needs to be careful to generalise.

However, based on theory, and armed with data, one can see that the middleman is not that exploitative, and the farmer is not that poor! Let’s look at the data now.

In the year 2020-21, the farmer’s estimated margins in key crops – wheat, onion, tomato and potato – range from 15% to 253%. Middleman’s margins, on the other hand, range, more normally, between 18% and 36%. In fact, if you look at it closely, this margin is shared between the wholesaler and retailer.

That the farmer may have made extraordinary profit in one year and lost significantly in another year is a normal trend. Anyone who understands rural economy will know this.

Similarly, the fact that the middleman’s margins are within a reasonable bound is due to the lesser risk they have assumed in storing the crop once it is ready and then selling it upon demand. That is Economics 101. What should the government do? In most cases, the government should do nothing more than quality checks and other institutional safeguards such as sanctity of contracts.

The exploitative middleman does not exist, it is our bias that we exhibit. As long as markets are open and competitive, exploitation is checked.

The middleman is pivotal to all economic transactions. While the use of technology is being perceived as a substitute, we need to realise that we are just changing the role here.

Instead of an arhti, we are giving the same or may be more profit to virtual platforms. If the government is setting up markets for exchange between farmers and consumers, it is not free – only that we can’t see its costs.

More dangerously, by doing this, the government has thrown itself into functions it should not bother about and has shunned its more important functions.

The writer is the Executive Director of PRIME, an independent think tank based in Islamabad

Published in The Express Tribune, May 10th, 2021.

Tale of two nations: How Pakistan can learn from Greece’s turnaround?

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

A Reuters file photo of Athens.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Greece may not have many things in common. They are located on different continents and the population of Greece is about one-20th of Pakistan. Pakistan is a low middle-income developing country while Greece is a high-income developed country.

But there are many similarities as well.

Both countries have been living much beyond their means and have to seek bailouts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as from other friendly countries. In fact, during the last 10 years, each of them took three bailouts.

Both countries have been facing serious problems with tax evasion. A study by Chicago University concluded that tax evasion in 2009 by self-employed professionals (accountants, dentists, lawyers, doctors and other service providers) alone in Greece was €28 billion.

Pakistan is facing the same problem. IMF estimates that tax capacity of Pakistan is 22.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), which implies a tax revenue gap of at least 10% of GDP or about the same as of Greece.

Another common factor is that both countries have seen several military governments. Both have been involved in long-standing and intractable territorial disputes with neighbors. Both countries spend heavily on defense compared to their GDP.

However, Greece is now turning the corner. Its new prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has embarked on a series of bold reforms. As a result, Greece has become the fastest-growing eurozone economy with consumer confidence rising to a 19-year high. Its 10-year bond yield has dropped to 1.59%, enabling Greece to repay the expensive IMF loan of 3.7 billion euros much earlier than the deadline.

On the other hand, Pakistan’s economy is still not stabilized. The annual fiscal deficit has risen to the highest level of 8.9%, not seen in the last three decades. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has continued to fall and this year it is down by over 50% compared to last year.

How has Greece finally managed to change things for the better while Pakistan’s economic situation seems to be worsening?

First, the new Greek government embarked on bold taxation and other reforms including cutting the corporate tax from 28% to 24% in 2020. Banking restrictions on the transfer of money have been removed to restore confidence.

Second, it is going for quick gains and focus on those areas where it already enjoys a preferential advantage. In 2018, there were 32 million overseas visitors, which were more than double the number in 2010.

It has introduced a golden visa scheme, which grants five-year residency rights for third-country nationals. Greece has become a top destination for China’s middle class.

Third, it has been working on improving its balance of trade through an export-led growth strategy rather than import substitution. This is despite a recurring substantial trade deficit, with exports of $30.2 billion versus imports of $52.8 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $22.5 billion. This year, its exports are expected to exceed $33-34 billion, which is the highest ever. It has modernized trade procedures and explored new markets and new products.

If Pakistan wants to halt its falling growth rate, it has to start freeing the economy of most of the restrictions. Liberalisation of telecom, financial and construction sectors during 2002-04 was the main driving force behind the fast GDP growth during the Musharraf era.

Due to recent adverse changes in taxation and other recent regulatory restrictions, business activities in all these areas have slowed down considerably.

Second, the government has to embark on an export-led strategy rather than trying to stick with the outdated import substitution policy. Its mild tariff reforms during the last budget have boosted local production and exports to some extent but to reach a tipping point, it needs to speed up the reform process.

Furthermore, it is high time Pakistan brings interest rate to a more reasonable level to stimulate growth. It has also to be more practical about its accountability drive, which has had a rather dampening impact on economic growth and new investments.

If Pakistan is to get out of its economic woes, it will have to embark on bold reforms. It has to open up its economy and cut red tape so that it can also attract some of the industries now being relocated from China to Vietnam, Bangladesh and other developing countries.

The writer served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the WTO from 2002 to 2008

Published in The Express Tribune, September 23rd, 2019.

Think Tank cautiously welcomes Sino-Pak FTA-II

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

New Year, New Agreement: The long-awaited Phase-II of the Pak-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has officially come into effect on January 1, 2020. The agreement is expected to enhance bilateral trade between the two countries. It primarily focuses on five major areas including market access, safeguards measures, electronic data exchange, protected tariff lines and balance of payment. Under the agreement, China will liberalize 3767 tariff lines over the next decade while Pakistan will liberalize 5237 tariff lines over the next 15 years. Out of the total tariff lines, China has immediately liberalized 1471 new tariff lines for Pakistan. These lines include the highest priority 313 tariff lines for Pakistan which cover over $8.7 billion worth of our global exports and over $64 billion worth of Chinese global imports. In contrast, Pakistan has immediately liberalized 685 new tariff lines for China.

The new FTA will benefit Pakistan’s economy by increasing market access of key export commodities such as textiles and garments, leather, seafood, footwear, chemicals, oilseeds, and some engineering goods. Pakistan imports a major chunk of its raw materials, intermediary products, and machineries from China. Liberalization of these tariff lines would imply cheap input prices and lower production cost for the domestic industries which would enhance the price competitiveness of Pakistan’s exports. Moreover, under this phase, Pakistan is allowed to impose safeguard measures if the surge in imports threatens to hurt its domestic industry. Underinvoicing and misreporting have been a major issue under Phase-I. The use of electronic data exchange under Phase-II will tackle under-invoicing and misreporting which will assist in curbing the black market and will increase FBR’s revenue. Further, the country is allowed to raise tariffs in order to reduce imports amidst a balance of payment crisis. In any event, the agreement is staggered over the next 15 years. For several products, duties will be eliminated from 2022 to 2029 while for some others, duties will be gradually reduced from 2023 onwards and the process will be completed in 2035.

On the flip side, the export gains from FTA remain limited due to Pakistan’s narrow basket and lack of value-addition. As Pakistan will be lowering its tariffs for China on 5237 items over time, there is a possibility of an increased import bill given the nature of those items (high valued products). If Pakistan does not quickly establish export processing zones for the manufacturing of value-added products and diversify its export basket, the expected gains of $4-5 billion over the next five years may not materialize. Akin to prior agreement, this FTA does not cater to non-tariff barriers that also restrict Pakistan’s exports to the Chinese market. It is important that Pakistan examines the impact of reduced tariffs on each product and correspondingly rationalizes its import tariff to avoid trade diversion as happened earlier. Despite all the concessions in the FTA, until the government reduces the cost of doing business and improves the regulatory environment, exports may not increase as envisioned.

The writer is associated with PRIME Institute, an independent think tank based in Islamabad. For media inquiries, please contact beenish@primeinstitute.org.

Warning: “Safe Mineral Water” won’t be Safe for the Economy

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

By Syed Talha Hassan Kazmi

The government of Pakistan has announced to intervene in the market of bottled water by launching a state-owned mineral water brand. Mr. Fawad Chaudary, Federal Minister for Science and Technology claimed that the bottled water costs Rs 1 per liter and it will be introduced in two phases. In the first phase, it will be used at government offices and in the second phase it will be made available to the general public.

Mr. Chaudary also said that it would be a cheaper alternative to other mineral water brands available in the market. In simple words, the government has decided to launch a SOE to compete with private market players. This article explains why such decisions are bound to fail. It also recommends some basic solutions to fix financial woes of the State Owned Enterprises.

Existence of a SOE can be justified only in that segment of the economy in which private sector is not willing to participate. Launching of “Safe Mineral water” cannot be justified in the presence of multiple private enterprises in this sector. In Lahore and other cities, one can find several privately-owned water shops providing quality water to the consumers at their door step at a price of around Rs. 5 per liter. Does the government really want to compete with them?

Ironically, we have many other sectors of economy in which loss making SOEs are unfairly contesting with private enterprises. For instance, despite having multiple privately-owned steel mills, Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) is haunting the economy with total losses and liabilities of over Rs 480 billion. PSM was closed down in 2015 but government is bearing an expenditure of Rs 370 million every month in terms of employees’ salaries.

SOEs are generally established to provide certain goodsat a lower price. These goods are not normally provided by the market as they are usually non-rivalrous and non-excludable. Provision of a good at an economical price requires efficiency at each and every stage of business process. However, most of the SOEs in Pakistan have lost their financial viability stemming from bad governance, over staffing andpolitical interference. Most of them are so inefficient that they cannot even meet their operating costs.

There is no economic or even moral justification behind the existence of SOEs in those sectors of economy in which private sector is participating actively. Every year government injects huge sums of tax payers’ money to keep them alive. We the taxpayers are facing consequences of the crimes which we haven’t committed but the white elephants still exist and incurring huge loses.

A report prepared by the Ministry of Finance reflects that the net losses of SOEs have surged by 330 percent in FY17 and reached to Rs191.5 billion. Among the top ten loss making SOEs, National Highway Authority sealed top position with net losses of around Rs 133 billion, followed by Pakistan Railways Rs 40.7 billion, PIAC Rs 39.6 billion and losses of PSM jumped up to Rs 14.9 billion. This is the price of government intervention in the markets.

Explaining why SOEs fail

The answer to this question lies in looking at the end result of government programs. The owners of private enterprises and the people who are involved in running SOEs have the same incentive: to serve their own interest. However, the bottom line is different in the private sphere than in the public sphere. Under a well -functioning market mechanism if an enterprise fails it will go out of the market and owners will lose their investments. So, they have a strong incentive to make it efficient to avoid losses. However, if same people run a government program and it fails, they know that can get a bailout package from the government. They have no incentive to make it efficient.

After coming to power, the PTI government has given two bailout packages worth Rs 38 billion to keep the national flag carrier in the skies. The first bailout package of Rs 17 billion was approved in November 2018 and the second “dose of oxygen”was provided in February 2019. In August 2019, PIA management has demanded another injection of nearly Rs10bn to remain afloat. The fresh assistance was demanded to pay off foreign loans and for repair and maintenance of aircrafts. The government however, showed its reluctance to inject more money due to IMF restrictions.

As of June 2019, SOEs domestic debt peaked to Rs 1.4 trillion (3.6 percent of GDP). The financial black holes are also borrowing from commercial banks which is fast crowding out private sector. SOEs have borrowed Rs 228 billion from banks for commodity operations.

What needs to be done?

The government of Pakistan must privatize all the loss-making SOEs as revamping of these loss-making entities is not an easy option. Many governments have tried first to revamp these entities before putting them on the privatization list. PTI government also wasted one year to realize that the privatization of loss-making entities is the only solution to avoid further losses.

However, before privatization, the government of Pakistan must formulate a sound privatization policy and create an enabling business environment. The policy should explain the prerequisites for privatization, its process, and criteria. The government of Pakistan must also reduce the regulatory burden and liberalize the economy to incentivize private investment. 

It is highly appreciated that the PTI government has selected 17 SOEs for privatization. It is recommended that the government must ensure transparency in the whole process and rules should not be violated to give any SOE to a particular group or individual.

In those sectors of the economy where the private sector is not participating, corporate structure can be introduced to minimize the losses. Pakistan introduced corporate governance rules in 2013 but these rules were practically ignored by the government of PMLN. World Bank has recently launched the “Report on Observance of Standards and Rules”. The report highlighted serious flaws in the affairs of SOEs, such as lack of performance management system, fragmented ownership structure and lack of staff with financial and commercial expertise.

Many countries have implemented corporate governance rules to ensure accountability, transparency, and clarity in the mandate of all the stakeholders. Independent central boards in the form of holding companies, specific boards, and monitoring authorities are established to enhance the efficiency of the SOEs. Examples include Tamasak Holding of Singapore; Department of Public Enterprises in India and New Zealand’s crown monitoring authority. The PTI government has also decided to set up a holding company named Surmaya e Pakistan Holding Limited (SPHL) for the management of SOEs. Under this initiative all the entities will become subsidiaries of PSHL and shares of the federal government in all the SOEs will be transferred to holding company. The initiative will not only be helpful in improving coordination among different public entities, but it will also help them in focusing on their core matters and non-core issues such as legal services can be outsourced to PSHL.

SOEs lack capital due to which the entities face problems in the development of new assets and in maintaining the existing ones. This issue can be resolved through public-private partnerships. For instance, private investment can be mobilized into the aviation sector of Pakistan. The aviation policy of 2015 provides a business-friendly framework that can be helpful in attracting private investment in the airline. Private investment can also be mobilized to minimize budget constraints faced by Pakistan Railway. For instance, trains can be outsourced to the private sector and the receipts generated through this initiative can be utilized to maintain railway tracks. Also, redundant real estate assets owned by Pakistan Railways can also be utilized to attract funds.

Conclusion

Most of the SOEs in Pakistan are facing severe financial crises. Custodians of Naya Pakistan have to realize that bailout packages have done more harm than good.

It is recommended that all loss-making enterprises which are unfairly competing with private enterprises must be privatized. But, before privatization, the government should formulate a sound privatization policy. The government should also minimize regulatory constraints and reduce its control over market forces to incentivize private investment.

Public Private Partnership and corporate governance may also help in revamping the SOEs which are operating in those segments where private sector is not willing to invest.

The PTI government must understand that government intervention in an efficiently functioning market mechanism is always destructive and Pakistanis have already paid enough price of such misadventures.

Author is a Research Fellow at PRIME Institute and holds an MPhil in Economics.