You can set your main menu in Appearance → Menus

Author: PRIME Institute

Lending from Privatized Banks: More for government, less for private sector

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Lending from Privatized Banks: More for government, less for private sector

A new report released by PRIME finds that the commercial lending to the private sector has declined from 24.1 percent of GDP in 1995 to 17.9 percent in 2019 undermining private sector economic growth, while increasing bank’s profitability manifolds.
The report finds dramatic increase of share of government securities in banks’ investment portfolio from 10 percent in 2010 to 46.4 percent in 2020, which indicates that banks have turned to risk-free lending to the government rather than playing a role in allocation of capital to the private sector. On the other hand, the profitability of banking sector increased from Rs 7 billion in 2000 to Rs 244 billion in 2020. These are the main messages from a recently released report by PRIME, an independent think tank, authored by economist Beenish Javed.
The report finds that the private sector lending stands at 17.9 percent of GDP in Pakistan, while regional economies like Bangladesh stood at 45 percent and India at 50 percent.
The report mentions gradual extinction of Development Finance Institutions as a factor, which were used to complement the banking sector by bridging the gaps in the supply and demand of financial services.
The report notes that after privatization, the infection ratio that stood at 25 percent in December 2000 fell to 8 percent in 2017and then increased to 9.2 percent as of December 2020.
The report also finds that in Pakistan, the banks’ credit disbursements to private sector are heavily skewed towards large enterprises. The share of large sized borrowers in total loans of the banking sector stands at 87 percent in Pakistan, such borrowers account for only 1.6 percent of the total borrowers, in contrast to 72.5 percent in Bangladesh.
PRIME Executive Director Ali Salman, commenting on the report, said that “the government needs to minimize its reliance on commercial borrowing as it not only displaces the private sector firms but also reduces risk appetite in banks”. Ali also urged that the commercial banks should streamline their financial procedures to reach out traditionally unbankable but profitable enterprises thus helping the policy goal of financial inclusion.

Please click on the pdf below to read the full report.

Debt without Growth

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) released a report titled ‘Debt without Growth’ that assesses government’s two-year performance in the domain of Public Debt.

As per the report, Pakistan’s foreign debt and liabilities increased by $17.6 bn or 18.5 percent between FY19 and FY20. This increase has been coupled with a deterioration in both the debt bearing and debt servicing capacity. During FY20 government borrowed an additional $3.7 bn worth of grants and loans to support country’s corona relief efforts thus adding to the debt burden. Like its predecessors, the government has not been able to fully capitalize on non-debt creating inflows like exports, remittances and foreign direct investment. Consequently, debt servicing remains the largest expense in the federal budget. The government has paid $11.9 bn in external debt servicing during FY20 which is 23 percent higher than the amount paid in FY19.

Please click on the pdf below to read the full report.

Dissecting Pakistan’s lead in Service Exports

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

As per World Trade Organization’s latest statistics, global trade in services witnessed an average decline of 24 percent in the third quarter of 2020. Out of the 39 countries reviewed, approximately 90 percent experienced contraction in service exports whilst 10 percent observed a positive growth.

Interestingly, Pakistan took the lead in the latter category. Notwithstanding the unprecedented times, the country registered year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 17 percent in November 2020 and 23.2 percent in December 2020. The month-on-month growth of service exports remained at 23.8 percent in December 2020.

To read more, click on the PDF given below:

Federal Government’s 2-Years Performance Report

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Federal Government’s 2-Years Performance Report

Introduction

Upon completion of PTI’s two years in the federal government, PRIME is issuing a short report on its assessment of the government’s performance in the domains of Trade Performance, Tax Policy & Administration, and Business Regulations.

Trade

In its first two years in power at the federal level, PTI-led government has laid the ground for its tariff policy. The policy entails simplifying tariff slabs on the principle of cascading; reducing additional customs and regulatory duties; providing time bound protection to nascent industries; gradually reducing tariffs on raw materials, intermediate and capital goods; and eliminating difference in rates for commercial importers and industrial users to end misuse. The now finalized, National Tariff Policy is to be implemented over a five year period starting from Federal Budget 2020-21, so its performance remains yet to be seen.

To facilitate international trade, SBP maintained its Export Financing Scheme rate at 3%, and Long-Term Financing Facility at 6%. Phase-II of China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement saw its implementation during the same period. On the legislative side, treasury bench tabled the Geographical Indicators (Registration and Protection) Bill, 2019, which has now been signed into an Act. Ministry of Commerce’ ‘Look Africa Policy’ has borne fruit in the form of a 10% increase in exports to Africa during Jul 2019 – Feb 2020. These exports now stand at $1.03 B. However, there is no visible change in the overall exports destination.

The most significant measure by the government which has impacted Pakistan’s international trade has been its policy of going for a market determined exchange rate. Over the two years, Pakistani Rupee has been let to devalue by around 34.5%. While it helped the government in reducing its import bill, it did not help in increasing exports.

Budget 2020-21 has been forthcoming in reducing the incidence of duties on imports to the extent that the customs duty proceeds for FY 2021 are forecasted to be 36% less than the previous fiscal year. However looking at the trade statistics for 2018-2020, goods imports have seen a large contraction from $55.6 B in FY 18 to $42.4 B in FY 20. Similarly, albeit to a lesser extent, goods exports dropped from $24.8 B in FY 18 to $22.5 B in FY 20. All things  considered,  during  PTI’s  two  years  in  government,  both  imports  and  exports  have  faced  a  substantial downward slide.

For the former, a principal factor was Pakistan’s decision to approach the IMF. Initially, in order to get a better deal from the IMF, the then Finance team of the PM tried its best to increase its forex reserves by:

  1.  Securing foreign currency deposits, loans, grants and deferred payment facilities from friendly countries such as Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and China.
  2.  By cutting down on its imports bill

Later on, once Pakistan entered into an IMF program under the Extended Fund Facility, it agreed to maintain a market based exchange rate and to improve its tax collection; factors which lead to further imports reduction. To meet its revenue targets, the government increased electricity tariffs, gas prices, and taxes on petroleum, which contributed to the slide in exports.

While the customs duties, regulatory duties, and import tariffs are being lowered in each successive fiscal year, there is no mentionable work on improving value-addition in exports, diversifying the exports basket or exploring new export destinations.

Tax Policy and Administration

Ever since assuming reigns of the federal government in August 2018, PTI has replaced four chairpersons of the FBR, in a period of two years. Each chairperson only got, on average, five and half months in office — a period too short to implement any meaningful reforms at FBR. Similarly, the top slot at Revenue Division has also changed hands thrice in two years.

To pursue its agenda of reforming tax policy, administration, and enforcement mechanism, PTI sold Shabbar Zaidi as the right man for the job. All the hope that there ever was about PTI being able to reform the tax system of the country, it relied upon Shabbar Zaidi to perform as an outsider to the bureaucracy, who wouldn’t face peer pressure in taking some much needed unpopular decisions that would face resistance from within the FBR. Nine months into the role, he took an indefinite leave from the job, citing health reasons, before he was officially replaced by a career civil servant again.

PTI’s boldest move in the domain of increasing the tax base was the move to bring the vast majority of non-tax paying retailers under the ambit of tax net. These retailers contribute around 18% to the national income but their tax contributions account for less than 1% of total FBR revenue.

The government imposed the condition of production of copy of CNIC for purchases over Rs. 50,000 and floated the idea of income tax calculated as a fixed percentage of annual turnover. Various trader unions organized shutter down strikes all across Pakistan and the pressure tactic seemed to have its desired effect as the government kept on extending the deadline for implementation of these measures so as to maintain status quo. While this resulted in resumption of market activity, it laid bare the weak writ of the state with respect to its ability to collect its dues.

At the same time number of tax filers has reached an all-time high of 2.7 million, credit for which goes to active enforcement measures by the FBR, and the amnesty scheme announced in May 2019. Overall, PTI government has announced two tax amnesty schemes in its tenure – one for the public in general, and one specifically for investments
in the construction industry. Bottom line – revised estimates for FBR taxes in 2017-18 stood at Rs. 3.94 billion; in 2019-20, the revised figure was recorded at Rs. 3.91 billion. Tax to GDP ratio is still in the single digit range, which has slipped to 9.5% from 9.9% last year.

Business Regulations

Pakistan’s Doing Business ranking has significantly improved from 136th to 108th in a year. This has been the result of successful implementation of a large number of initiatives across numerous departments, all of which cannot be mentioned here, for want of space. Few notable measures include elimination of requirement of physical inspection by FBR at the time of registration; time for obtaining building permit reduced from 30 days to 15 days; and number days required for obtaining electricity connection reduced from 73 days to 49 days in Lahore, and from 134 days to 73 days in Karachi. 

Government of Pakistan has established Pakistan Single Window (PSW), which will go live in 2022. The PSW is being developed at a cost of $67 million, borrowed from World Bank. The PSW programme includes phased establishment of an ICT-based platform involving simplification, harmonisation, and automation of regulatory process related to cross-border trade. It also includes implementation of a port community system to facilitate related logistics.

In the domain of promoting E-Commerce, in October 2019, Government of Pakistan introduced the country’s first ever E-Commerce policy. This is a step in the right direction however strong commitment by the government is required to make these reforms see the light of the day. Presently, Pakistan ranks 114th out of 152 countries on UNCTAD’s B2C E-Commerce Index. She lags her Asian competitors such as Malaysia, Thailand, India and Bangladesh that rank at 34th, 48th, 73rd and  103rd place, respectively. In 2020, SBP announced five-fold increase in the remittance limit for freelancers, from $5,000 to $25,000 per individual per month. Such meaningful measures for the industry can enable proliferation of E-Commerce transactions in Pakistan.

Post the onset of Covid-19 in Pakistan, PM Imran Khan has brought forth the construction incentives package as his revival plan for the economy. The PM is chairing weekly meetings to review progress and resolve any issues faced by the industry. PM’s construction incentives package has offered builders and developers with a tax amnesty scheme; given the status of industry to construction sector; it has introduced a fixed tax regime for the industry; withholding Tax has been exempted on all construction-related goods andservices except steel and cement; only 10% of fixed tax to be payable for those constructing houses under Naya Pakistan Housing Program; and State Bank of Pakistan and all other banks directed to set aside 5 percent of their portfolios for house financing.

In the domain of tourism promotion, the PM appears keen to deliver. PTI has made several contributions to both the tangibles and the intangible affecting the industry. The government has set up several camping sites for tourists in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. E-Visa facility has been introduced along with relaxation in NOC requirements for foreign visitors. The government has transferred ownership of government rest-houses to Tourism Corporation Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These positive steps notwithstanding, existence of multiple and overlapping task forces
for coordination and promotion of tourism indicates lack of clear policy. This is further complicated by the fact that in June 2020, Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation shut down 30 of its managed tourist facilities and terminated 450 employees due to financial losses.

Conclusion 

In an effort to curtail the trade and current account deficits, the government has ended up reducing the total trade volume of the country in such a manner that total imports and total exports both have fallen down. As 18% of FBR revenue comes from customs duties, and 38% from Sales tax (of which approximately 55% is contributed by imports), naturally FBR revenues were bound to take a hit, which explains the lackluster revenue performance of the government. These issues notwithstanding, the government has achieved a noteworthy improvement of jumping up 28 spots in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index in a year – a feat which could not have been achieved without support from the provincial governments, most notably the Government of Sindh and the Government of Punjab. An increase in the tax registry to 2.7 million is a significant achievement however tax policy and administration still needs revamping. We once again call for considering a low-rate, flatter and broad-based income and sales tax regime with better enforcement which can encourage more people to file tax returns and can yield a predictable tax base.

Click here to download the report:

Federal Government’s 2-Years Performance Report

Street Vendor Assembly -Peshawar

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Institute, in collaboration with Friedrich Naumann Foundation and National Youth Assembly, has held a Street Vendor Assembly in Shahi Bagh Area of Peshawar. Zafar Ullah Khan, President of Rehri Baan Association in Peshawar, organized the participation of a large number of stall holders and cart pushers in the assembly. Purpose of the assembly was to create awareness among street vendors about the lacunas in-country laws that exacerbate their economic plight. Faiz Muhammad, President of Sarhad Chamber of Commerce, was the Chief Guest at the event.

Zia Banday, Executive Director of PRIME, elaborated on the economic aspects of street vending. He mentioned that this low economic segment is much resilient in survival against all odds, which has emerged due to uneven imposition of rule of law. It is impacting the earning capacity of the street vendors, who are the victims of state apathy and at the mercy of different mafias. Street vendors are playing a very important role in serving as a distribution channel for taking the goods of cottage and small businesses to the low and middle income groups. Mostly street vendors are from low skilled and rural migrant segments. They are a vital cog in an urban economy, which needs to be taken into account for any city planning.

Ahmed Bashir, a Senior Lawyer and a Research Fellow, said that street vendors are heart of Peshawar’s economy.  And yet, Street vending and provision of services escapes attention despite it being the primary means of combating poverty and of economic survival for many inhabitants of the city.  Importance of street vendors as service providers is immense, however, all the laws concerning them are for controlling their economic activity and there are hardly any workable provisions for facilitating them and to improve their working conditions and general betterment.

Zafar Ullah Khan highlighted the plight of street vendors in Peshawar. He did mention the lack of protection to street vendors and their continuous fear of being uprooted from their place of business. He demanded the government to provide them amenities for operating in the newly constructed Bachat Bazar. Hanan Ali Abbasi, President of National Youth Assembly, has reiterated the engagement of youth in supporting the cause of street vendors for improved rights and enhanced livelihood.

In his concluding remarks, Faiz Muhammad, President of Sarhad Chamber, has informed the audience about the commitment of business community in helping the street vendors and taking their voice to higher echelons of the government. Business community is even ready to allocate their own money for easing the water problems of street vendors.

In a question & answer session, various street vendors did talk about the humiliation they have to undergo at the hands of police and other city agencies. They feel powerless and despite paying bribes, they remain insecure and fearful owing to uncertainty in their tenure. They demanded the issuance of health cards and education facilities for street vendors and their families. PRIME Institute did announce constituting of a working group that will comprise of elected representatives, street vendors and civil society to lobby government for improving upon the legal structure for the street vendors.

Street Vendor Assembly – Karachi

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Institute, in collaboration with Friedrich Naumann Foundation and National Youth Assembly, has held a Street Vendor Assembly in New Sabzi Mandi, Karachi. Purpose of the assembly was to create awareness among street vendors about their vending rights in country laws that exacerbate their economic plight. Mr. Rabistan Khan, Local MPA, was the Chief Guest at the event.

Zia Banday, Executive Director of PRIME, elaborated on the economic aspects of street vending. He mentioned that this low economic segment is much resilient in survival against all odds, which has emerged due to the uneven imposition of the rule of law. It is impacting the earning capacity of the street vendors, who are the victims of state apathy and at the mercy of different mafias. Street vendors are playing a very important role in serving as a distribution channel for taking the goods of the cottage and small businesses to the low and middle-income groups. Mostly street vendors are from low skilled and rural migrant segments. They are a vital cog in an urban economy, which needs to be taken into account for any city planning.

Ahmed Bashir, a Senior Lawyer and a Research Fellow, said that street vendors are heart of Karachi’s economy.  And yet, Street vending and provision of services escapes attention despite it being the primary means of combating poverty and of economic survival for many inhabitants of the city.  Importance of street vendors as service providers is immense, however, all the laws concerning them are for controlling their economic activity and there are hardly any workable provisions for facilitating them and to improve their working conditions and general betterment.

Rabistan Khan , highlighted the plight of street vendors in Karachi. He did mention the lack of protection to street vendors and their continuous fear of being uprooted from their place of business. He demanded the government to provide them. He has given his full support to initiative for improving the environment for street vending. He mentioned his commitment for introduction for any legislative bill in the provincial assembly in this regards.

 Hanan Ali Abbasi, President of National Youth Assembly, has reiterated the engagement of youth in supporting the cause of street vendors for improved rights and enhanced livelihood.

In a question & answer session, various street vendors elaborated on difficulties they face in running their business. They said the absence of civic humanities in the Mandi area despite collection of hefty taxes by market committee.

PRIME Institute did announce constituting of a working group that will comprise of elected representatives, street vendors and civil society to lobby government for improving upon the legal structure for the street vendors.

Street Vendor Assembly-Quetta

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

PRIME Institute, held its 4th Street Vendor Assembly, at Baldia Ground, Quetta. The assembly was arranged in collaboration with the National Youth Assembly. It was attended by a large number of street vendors, operating in various neighborhoods of Quetta City. Senator Naseeb-ullah Bazai was the chief guest at the occasion.

Muhammad Ali, Chief Metropolitan Officer and Rahim Agha, President Anjuman e Tajiran Quetta were also present.

Zia Banday, Joint Executive Director, PRIME elaborated on the background and rationale of this assembly. He informed the audience that the street vendors around the country are suffering from inadequate legal protection, which makes make them susceptible to  uprooting by municipalities and law enforcement agencies.

The government efforts in providing physical facilities for alleviating suffering of the poor are vital but protection of vending rights will enhance the productivity and earning capacity of this low income of the society.

Mr. Ahmed Bashir, prominent lawyer, mentioned that the street vendors in Pakistan are affectees due to unawareness  of their rights and state apathy towards them.

Laws pertaining to street vending needs improvement. Efforts will be made to engage street vendor representative, municipality and civil society to prepare a new street vendor bill for covering vending rights in the cities.

Hanan Ali Abbasi, President National Youth Assembly, addressed the audience about the dichotomy of haves and have nots in the society.

He pointed out towards vast income gulf prevalent under current economic dispensation. In his opinion, the situation is unsustainable and real change is only possible from the bottom up approach.

Muhammad Ali , Chief Metropolitan Officer, inform the participants about the efforts undertaken by the municipality to resolve the issue. He asked the street vendor community to pay attention on educating their children. He told them that education is an optimal path for their social mobility.

Mr. Raheem, president Arjanman e Tajran, did talk about the problems faced by the street vendors in the city. He defined them as a vital part of the local city economy and their contribution cannot be ignored.

Senator Naseeb-ullah, in his concluding remarks, appreciated the efforts of PRIME  in highlighting a critical issue for the sustenance of one of the most deprived sections of the society.

He told the street vendor, that as a political representative, he is well aware of their difficult operating environment. He will make his all efforts to take the voice of street vendors at the provincial and federal level. He will support the PRIME initiative for a new street vendor bill. At the end of the assembly, different street vendor vent out about their problems, which they are facing at the ends of city administration. Callous state attitude is depriving them of their livelihood and pushing them in the poverty trap.

Zia Banday announced the formation of a working group comprising of an elected representative of street vendors, government officials and civil society to work on the development of street vendor bill.

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)- Economic Development Unit (EDU)

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

 

A MoU signing ceremony was held in the Mayor’s Office, Peshawar, for the setting up of Economic Development Unit (EDU). MoU Signatories included City District Government Peshawar, Sarhad Chamber of Commerce & Industry, UN Habitat and PRIME Institute, an Economic Think Tank. Purpose of the EDU is to serve as a platform for the Peshawar Municipality to engage broader stakeholders in the facilitation of economic development of Peshawar. Through EDU, Peshawar Municipality will be striving to attain 3 goals of job creation, investment flow and tax generation.

Mr. Asim Khan, Mayor of Peshawar, welcomed the signatories at his office. He elaborated on the utility of EDU for the economic development of Peshawar. He mentioned that a city needs to create jobs and bring investments for spreading prosperity. He linked the business growth with the increase in tax revenues for the municipality. This tax flow is essential to fund the municipal services and improve upon their quality. In this manner, city livability rises that further enhances economic competitiveness.

Mr. Faiz Muhammad, President Sarhad Chamber, has assured about the commitment of business community of Peshawar in backing the EDU venture. He was of the opinion that EDU will contribute in creating job and business opportunities. He thanked the Mayor of Peshawar for extending his backing for the EDU and engaging broader business community for economic coalition building.

Mr. Jawed Ali Khan, Country Representative of UN Habitat, has defined the role of UN in supporting LED initiatives in Pakistan and other countries. He mentioned that UN Habitat is looking to establish similar EDUs in 10-largest cities of Pakistan. He highlighted the vital role of municipalities in economic development for job creation and investment solicitation. He reiterated his understanding of the utility of EDU in expanding economic horizons of Peshawar.

Mr. Zia Banday, Joint Executive Director of PRIME, has highlighted their involvement in economic-related initiatives for Peshawar. He did mention that this work is line with PTI government vision of empowering and engaging local governments in economic development. EDU mechanics will comprise of a bottom-up approach, whereby Municipality will be contributing to the federal and provincial pro-growth and poverty alleviation agenda. Mr. Banday did inform that EDU will be embarking on its first initiative of preparing an Economic Development Strategy of Peshawar. Based upon this strategy, further LED initiatives will be designed and implemented.  

The MoU signing ceremony was attended by a number of Municipal officials and representatives of the business community of Peshawar. Zahid Nadeem, Town-1 Nazim, Shafiq Rehman, Director General Peshawar Municipality and Mr. Haris Mufti, Vice President Sarhad Chamber were also in attendance.

1st Working Group Meeting Street Vendor Project- Capitalism from Below

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Background:

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), in collaboration with Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF), National Youth Assembly and Ahmed Bashir & Associates had conducted its 1st Working Group meeting of Street Vendor Project in Islamabad. Known as “thelay walay” in local vernacular, these street vendors make a valuable contribution by bringing the market to one’s doorstep. Their role, in the livelihood sustenance of poorer segments of the society, cannot be underestimated. The project targets five cities namely Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, and Quetta and comprises of two phases. Under its first phase, Street Vendor Assemblies have been organized in four cities (Islamabad, Karachi, Peshawar, and Quetta) while the second phase focuses on working group meetings to be held in each of the aforementioned cities. Under this project, PRIME has taken the initiative to draft a legislative bill for regulating and protecting the rights of street vendors in Pakistan. For the purpose, a focus group discussion was held to solicit feedback from multiple stakeholders on the preparation of the Legislative Bill.

Participants:

The target audience for this working group meeting included an array of participants from the municipality, businesses, multilateral, academia, media, and vending community. Mr. Sajid Abbasi, Chairman of Metropolitan Corporation Islamabad and Mr. Tikka Khan, Ex-Federal Minister and Secretary-General of All Pakistan Newspaper Seller Federation graced the event with their presence. 25 in the number of participants attended the discussion.

Proceedings :

The Forum started with a welcome address and a brief overview of the street vendor project given by Ms. Beenish Javed, Research Associate, PRIME. She highlighted the rationale and objectives of the meeting. In doing so, she also shed light on the economic significance of the vending community, the challenges facing their livelihoods and the need to regulate and protect their vending rights. It was followed by a presentation on “Street Vendors’ Rights” by Mr. Ahmed Bashir, Advocate, Ahmed Bashir & Associates. He outlined the challenges facing vendors, plausible solutions to their problems and essential features of the draft legislative bill. Thereafter, the forum was opened for a focus group discussion.

Discussion:

Mr. Ahmed Bashir briefed that the legislative bill would cover aspects related to the demarcation of vending zones, licensing, compensation, penalties, the formation of a representative body, establishment of vendors’ association, provision of micro-credit, redressal mechanism and formulation of a national policy for street vendors. He emphasized that in order to provide legal recognition to street vendors, declaration of clearly demarcated vending zones is a priority. While discussing the essential features of the draft bill, he proposed that the license fee should not exceed Rs. 100 per month. Additionally, it should contain the names of family members, including women.

Street vendors present at the meeting shared the extent of humiliation they have to encounter at the hands of police and unelected market committee. They feel powerless and despite paying bribes, feel insecure and fearful owing to uncertainty in their tenure. Their carts are often confiscated by the CDA without any compensation or reimbursement for the damages caused to their products. They also mentioned how complex it is to retrieve their carts from the CDA. They said most of the vendors are unaware of the nearby local dispensary and those, who are aware, do argue that it is of little use due to inadequate availability of medicines. Other participants suggested that public-private partnership is the key to improving the plight of vendors. In this regard, they suggested signing MoU with the Planning Commission in order to take this initiative forward with the requisites of Ehsaas Program.

Mr. Hanan Abbasi, President, National Youth Assembly reiterated the engagement of youth in supporting the cause of street vendors for improved rights and enhanced livelihood. Mr. Sajid Abbasi, Chairman, Metropolitan Corporation Islamabad touched upon the fragmented governance structure at Islamabad and mentioned that he is well aware of the plight of the street vendors. Despite the administrative constraints, he assured that efforts would be made to provide relief to the vendors. The forum ended with a vote of thanks from Mr. Tikka Khan, Ex-Federal Minister & Secretary General of All Pakistan Newspaper Seller Federation who reassured his full support to the organizations involved in this project.

Policy Dialogue – Fiscal Federalism & Devolution-Peshawar

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) organized a policy dialogue on fiscal federalism and devolution, at Pearl Continental, Peshawar. A select group of the informed audience was invited to participate in the discussion. Participants belonged to a diverse background of government, academia, business, media, and civil society. PRIME is conducting these dialogues in all four provincial capital cities in the country.

These sessions serve to provide a platform to the concerned stakeholders across the country to provide their inputs to PRIME’s ongoing research. For the purpose, PRIME has engaged five economists for authoring policy papers on 5- different NFC related issues. And these authors are part of all these provincial level dialogues.

Inter-governmental resource distribution is more of a political matter rather than a purely economic one. All decisions reached the National Finance Commission have to be reached at by a consensus. Therefore, in order to come up with pragmatic recommendations, research authors from PRIME are holding consultative sessions across the country. Peshawar session was moderated by Shehryar Aziz, whereas authors briefed the audience on their respective NFC paper. It was followed by an open discussion at the forum.

Dr. Ghulam Samad (Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Climate Change, PIDE)

Pakistan does not have a framework for provincial government expenditures. The federal authorities are collecting almost 98 percent of the total revenue and the provincial governments’ total expenditures are more than that of the federal expenditures. While the provincial governments’ expenditures are increasing, the same trend cannot be observed in the provinces’ contribution to revenue growth. The forum voiced its concern that while the federal government is seeking a great share in the gross divisible pool, at the same time it is vying to take over control of major hospitals from the provincial government in Karachi.

Dr. Sajid Amin (Head, Policy Solutions Lab, SDPI)

Granting such a high weightage to the population as a resource distribution criterion needs to be evaluated. When the population has a weightage of 80 percent in the horizontal distribution formula, other important indicators get left with very insignificant weightage.

Provinces that have a high population naturally are in need of greater resources to be able to meet their needs. When the population has such a high weightage in the resource distribution formula, this creates an incentive for the provinces for not keeping a lid on their population growth rates.

A major sticking point in the NFC discussions is achieving a consensus. And that becomes further difficult when certain stakeholders do not even sit at the table for discussions. Case in point is the first meeting of the recently reconstituted NFC, which was not attended by Chief Minister Mr. Murad Ali Shah, the representative of Sindh province.

Shahid Mehmood (Public Policy Consultant; Instructor, Pakistan Institute of Trade & Development)

Under article 160 of the constitution of Pakistan, the provinces have ownership of their natural resources. However, it is seen that the federal government exercises far more control over them as against the provincial governments. For example, it is the federal government which bi-annually determines the well-head pricing.

This argument was further strengthened by the participants who questioned that if oil and gas are shared resources; then where is the representation of provincial representatives on the boards of SOEs operating in the Oil and Gas sectors? Granting the right of collection of revenue (that is eventually transferred to provinces in the form of straight transfers) to provincial governments is currently disadvantageous for the federal government, which faces a budgetary shortfall of Rs.2 trillion.

Unfortunately, the districts from which natural resources are being extracted, their human development indicators are faring too bad as compared to other settled districts in the country. Neither the provincial nor the federal government spares a thought about the uplift of these areas.

Sohaib Jamali (Editor, BR Research)

Discussants at the forum spoke on the need to adhere to the constitution. It was pointed out that before the NFC deliberated upon a new formula for resource distribution, one must first ensure compliance on the existed formula. As per the participants, KP is still deprived of its due share in net hydel profits. There is a severe trust deficit between the federal government and the provinces. How can then a new formula benefit from a consensus, when the formula that has previously been agreed upon is not being respected?

Sohaib elaborated that the issue of Provincial Finance Commission (PFC) is an entirely provincial domain. If there is some bone of contention between the federal and provincial governments, it does not mean that the provinces should not proceed with improving their PFCs or empowering their districts. Provinces’ grievances with the federation and the subject of municipal empowerment are mutually exclusive. Out of a provincial finance commission comprising of 12 members, 8 are bureaucrats and only 4 are elected representatives of the people. So if there is tilted representation on the PFC, this cannot be justified with lack of mistrust between the federation and the provinces.

Policy Dialogue – Fiscal Federalism & Devolution -Karachi

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME) organized a policy dialogue on fiscal federalism and devolution, at Karachi Marriott Hotel. A select group of the informed audience was invited to participate in the discussion. Participants belonged to a diverse background of government, academia, business, media, and civil society. PRIME is conducting these dialogues in all four provincial capital cities in the country. These sessions serve to provide a platform to the concerned stakeholders across the country to provide their inputs to PRIME’s on-going research. For the purpose, PRIME has engaged five economists for authoring policy papers on 5- different NFC related issues. And these authors are part of all these provincial level dialogues. Inter-governmental resource distribution is more of a political matter rather than a purely economic one. All decisions reached at the National Finance Commission have to be reached at by a consensus. Therefore, in order to come up with pragmatic recommendations, research authors from PRIME are holding consultative sessions across the country.

The Karachi session was moderated by Dr. Imtiaz Bhatti, Additional Secretary (Coordination) at Chief Secretary’s Secretariat, Government of Sindh; whereas the panelists briefed the audience on their respective NFC paper.

Dr. Ghulam Samad (Director, Centre for Environmental Economics and Climate Change, PIDE)

Pakistan does not have a framework for provincial government expenditures. The federal authorities are collecting almost 98 percent of the total revenue and the provincial governments’ total expenditures are more than that of the federal expenditures. While the provincial governments’ expenditures are increasing, the same trend cannot be observed in the provinces’ contribution to revenue growth. The panelist posed the following questions before the forum:

1. Is there a need for expenditure framework for the provinces?

2. Should it really be a mandate of the NFC to discuss transparency and accountability?

3. What kind of incentives should be given to the provincial governments to encourage them to increase their own revenues? 4. Do the provinces need a fiscal responsibility law?

Dr. Naimat U. Khan (Assistant Professor, Institute of Management Sciences, University of Peshawar)

The panelist sought the forum’s opinion on the suggestion that the two territories of Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir should be treated like other provinces, so that a permanent percentage of divisible pool can be allocated for the two. This way they will not be each year dependent upon the federal government’s share of resources.

In case of Balochistan there is a protection with respect to the minimum percentage of share in divisible pool. Dr. Naimat posed the question whether there can be any such protection for GB/AJK or not? Can the federation assign a fixed percentage of non-tax resources for GB/AJK?

Dr. Sajid Amin (Head, Policy Solutions Lab, SDPI)

Granting such a high weightage to population as a resource distribution criteria needs to be revaluated. When population has a weightage of 82 percent in the horizontal distribution formula, other important indicators get left with very insignificant weightage.Provinces that have a high population naturally are in need of greater resources to be able to meet their needs. When population has such a high weightage in the resource distribution formula, this creates an incentive for the provinces for not keeping a lid on their population growth rates.

Poverty is given a weightage of 10 percent. It is proposed that this indicator should be substituted with poverty distance. Furthermore, the value obtained for poverty distance shall then be multiplied with the population in the province as this figure will be more representative of the actual needs of the province, with respect to poverty alleviation. The major resistance in the current NFC negotiations is coming from the province of Sindh. The question is what will be the level of willingness of the government of Sindh in undertaking population control initiatives?

Shahid Mehmood (Economic Policy Consultant; Instructor, Pakistan Institute of Trade & Development)

Under article 160 of the constitution of Pakistan, the provinces have ownership of their natural resources. However, it is seen that the federal government exercises far more control over them as against the provincial governments. For example, it is the federal government which bi-annually determines the wellhead pricing. Granting the right of collection of revenue (that is eventually transferred to provinces in the form of straight transfers) to provincial governments is currently disadvantageous for the federal government, which faces a budgetary shortfall of Rs.2 trillion.

Unfortunately, the districts from which natural resources are being extracted, their human development indicators are faring too bad as compared to other settled districts in the country. Neither the provincial nor the federal government spares a thought about the uplift of these areas.

Sohaib Jamali (Editor, BR Research)

Sindh has been without a Provincial Finance Commission for the last so many years. As per Sindh Local Government laws, property taxes, taxes on transfer of immovable property, tax on professions, trades and 4 callings, lie in the domain of local government. But realistically speaking it is still being levied and collected by the provincial government. From the perspective of PFC, development spending is still top-down instead of being the other way round.

There are thirteen/fourteen members of the PFC in Sindh of which 6 out rightly belong to the provincial government. Two are from the private sector, nominated by the provincial government. This is to say that if the district governments/local government are not fairly represented on the PFC, how fair would an award really be?

Delivering 5m homes via markets

by PRIME Institute PRIME Institute No Comments

Delivering 5m homes via markets

Ali Salman

Incentives will push private sector to deploy resources for building housing units

Prime Minister Imran Khan. PHOTO: RADIO PAKISTAN

ISLAMABAD: The most important promise that Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) made to the people in the economic domain was the construction of five million homes targeting the poor segments of the populace.

Three years on, we have seen the launch of Naya Pakistan Housing Programme (NPHP), along with the announcement of subsidised mortgages for the low-income customers.

As of today, 1,500 housing units have been delivered whereas another 5,000 units in different cities are being built. Even then, the attribution of these units exclusively to NPHP is debatable as housing is technically a provincial domain.

At this rate, if the government is lucky, NPHP will hardly deliver 1% of its target by the end of PTI’s tenure.

Home ownership matters not only for urban planning, but also for providing an asset-backed security for people. One may also spot a case of market failure – all new housing schemes launched by the private sector attract only the middle and upper classes.

And arguably, 40% of Pakistan’s population comprising low-income and low middle income will remain deprived if we were to depend on the private sector. That is why we need the government to fill this gap and deliver.

This is the basic premise of all housing programmes that governments launch. NPHP is no exception. However, this approach is fundamentally flawed.

Last week, Safiya Homes, a private organisation working to provide affordable housing solutions for the low income, delivered keys to the first batch of 400 owners in Lahore. These families could not have imagined owning a house of their own as their average monthly income is a meagre PKR 40k-60k.

This organisation is currently developing a number of projects across the country with plans to deliver 5,000 houses by 2023. They have successfully mobilised both domestic and foreign investment to the tune of Rs4 billion.

The private sector works for incentives. In the case of housing market, the incentives, largely driven by a set of rules, practices and demand, mainly disfavour any business model for the low-income people.

This “market failure” can be corrected by altering the incentive structure. Once this is corrected, we will see vast resources being deployed by the private sector in the low-income housing segment, thus not only helping the new homeowners, but also achieving the prime minister’s vision.

The missing insight is that affordable housing is not a game of margins but a game of time.

Typically, the maximum margins on an affordable housing project would be 50% over the life of the project, ie five years, resulting in an annualised ROI of 10%. This is not attractive for private capital, especially in the financial scenario of Pakistan, where inflation is touching 10%.

However, if these five years can be reduced to half – 2.5 years – the annualised ROI will double to 20%, thus making it attractive for the private capital.

The challenge is to re-engineer the planning and approval process. The time that it takes from planning to execution of a housing scheme can be reduced by cutting down the time required to issue an NOC from the current maximum of 36 months to six months.

The good news is that in the case of Punjab, the government has passed legislation to allow Punjab Housing and Town Planning Agency (PHATA) to effectively reduce the time to below six months in the case of affordable housing. This needs to be executed, replicated and demonstrated by all provincial governments.

After approval, the next stage is to develop the scheme, lay down trunk infrastructure and build houses. The time required for development and building houses will be largely a function of the developer’s capacity and demand.

While the private sector can be mobilised to increase the speed to deliver in about nine months, the time required to sell the units can be minimised too.

There is a lack of trust by the citizens in private sector developers, and for the right reason. The government or a regulatory body can help in the certification of developers.

At the same time, the government can assess aggregate demand of the applicants and can channel it to the private sector after appropriate screening.

Obviously, to make it work, transparent criteria for the selection of beneficiaries and transmission of information to the private sector will be critical.

If the demand can be aggregated and developers certified, the sales time period can be cut from a matter of years to a few weeks, thus helping the private sector to achieve financial close.

The end-result of altering the set of incentives will be increased annual ROI for the private sector – to the tune of 33%, more homes delivered in a shorter time and finally no more fiscal burden on taxpayers’ money.

As the project location decision is made by the private sector, supported by the demand data shared by the government, the success probability of the project goes up significantly.

If one private group like Safiya Homes can deliver affordable homes, this can be replicated and scaled by other private groups as well. This needs to be aided by reforms in mortgage laws about which significant progress has been made already.

Thus, it is possible to correct market failure of the private sector in the housing market by changing rules and by bringing in government where it really matters.

The writer is founder and executive director of PRIME, an independent economic policy think tank

Published in The Express Tribune, June 28th, 2021.