PRIME Report: Assessing Pakistan’s Economic Freedom with a Focus on Sound Money

The Policy Research Institute of Market Economy (PRIME), in collaboration with the Atlas Network, has published a report titled “Pakistan Economic Freedom Audit: Sound Money as a Case Study,” delving into Pakistan’s economic freedom with a focus on monetary stability.

Authored by economist Dr Wasim Shahid Malik, a fellow at PRIME, this study thoroughly explores Pakistan’s financial system, emphasizing the stability of its money. It also evaluates the effectiveness of the Sound Money sub-index in measuring economic freedom, using the Fraser Institute’s Economic Freedom Index. The report finds that Pakistan’s sound money rating has consistently been low and has further decreased due to high inflation in 2023, resulting in its lowest rating to date. Over the past 50 years, the Pakistani currency has lost 68 times its value against a typical consumer’s basket and has depreciated 25 times its value against the US dollar.

“Recent assessments reveal that Pakistan’s sound money rating for 2023 is 4.60, which is the lowest in Pakistan’s history, primarily due to exceptionally high inflation during the year,” says the report.

According to the report, monetary fragility is primarily caused by excessive monetary growth that exceeds GDP growth. This growth in the money supply is due to a lack of fiscal discipline, as the government has been borrowing heavily from the State Bank of Pakistan. Despite the amendment to the SBP Act, the government continues to borrow heavily from commercial banks due to a high fiscal deficit and higher interest rates. This, in turn, crowds out the private sector, limits economic activity and lowers the value of money. Maintaining the money market interest rate close to the SBP policy rate, while the government continues to borrow and spend, SBP provides liquidity to commercial banks who lend it to the government. Additionally, the report identifies exchange rate overvaluation as another contributing factor to monetary fragility. Historically, the exchange rate has been kept overvalued, leading to unsustainable trade deficits and continuous reliance on external borrowing. This has resulted in recent exchange rate depreciation, which has made the country’s currency value unstable against foreign currencies.

The report recommends improvements in the methodology used to measure the Sound Money Sub-index of the Economic Freedom Index. It also proposes a comprehensive reform plan to maintain the stability of the country’s money value. The report suggests a number of measures, including rationalizing the size of the government, implementing an efficient and fair revenue mobilization system, adopting an effective monetary policy to control inflation, ensuring effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, demonstrating a strong commitment to the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, setting up an accountability mechanism for fiscal authorities not adhering to the FRDL Act and for monetary authorities not controlling inflation, and limiting the government’s intention to keep the exchange rate overvalued.